December 2, 2020

Biathlon simulation description

Below is a table containing our projected results of the 2020-21 BMW IBU World Cup season. We arrived at these results by simulating all the races of the 2020-21 season 250 000 times, adding up the points and checking how often the different athletes finished in the various positions.

You can navigate to check the results for both women and men and also all the different disciplines. Our simulations are based on results from the last few season and we have made the unlikely assumption that all the athletes will start every race.

A weakness of this first version of our simulation is that it makes no attempt to predict which athletes are likely to improve their performance and which are likely to regress. Instead of modelling that younger athletes are more likely to improve than older athletes, we have now at the start of the season increased the variance in the results of all the athletes. Because of this older athletes are likely to have their future performance overestimated, while younger athletes like former junior world champions; Marketa Davidova and Kamilla Zuk are likely to have their future performance underestimated.