April 17, 2024

Few picks but great results

The winter biathlon season came to its conclusion a couple of months ago. It was a truly epic season filled with spectacular highlights, with the races from the Beijing Olympics being the stand out events.

We had two first time winners of the big globes in Quentin Fillon Maillet and Marte Olsbu Roeiseland. These two athletes also secured a huge medal haul from the Beijing games. Between them, they picked up 10 medals.

Marte Olsbu Roeiseland won Gold in Sprint, Pursuit races and Mixed relay and Bronze in Individual race and Mass start while Fillon Maillet flew home to France with 2 Golds and 3 Silvers which he won in Individual and Pursuit disciplines and Sprint, Relay and Mixed relay accordingly.

Sportindepth have every reason to be happy with the season as well. Even as we posted fewer betting tips than we expected before the start of the season, the tips made by our biathlon model showed a healthy profit.

The 46 tips earned a profit of 21.45 units and a yield in excess of 23%. The P-Value of 0.074 means that it is unlikely, but far from impossible, that such betting would be the result of pure luck.

Our tips were made at average odds of 2.148, the average closing odds was 1.924. That the odds on average dropped significantly is another sign that our model was not just lucky, but is able to actually beat the betting markets. As this article highlights, measuring betting tips against the Pinnacle closing price is likely a far better indicator, at least in the short run, of the quality of the tips than looking only at the yield the tips have produced.

We will keep improving our biathlon model and hope to make our total season predictions for the 22/23 season when the next and improved version of our model will be completed. We hope this will be done in a few months.

For next season we hope to use our model to make predictions for all the World Cup and World Championship races. We also hope to launch many more betting tips, which we fully expect will have a fair profit.

Mathis Brorstad

Mathis Brorstad

Mathis Brorstad is a Norwegian freelance writer. He is mainly covering Athletics, Biathlon and other Winter Sports. In the past he has done work on odds and probabilities.

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