Oslo Holmenkollen BMW IBU World Cup Biathlon 20.03.2022 women 12.5km Mass Start race preview

The biathlon model has simulated today’s women 12.5km Mass Start race 500 000 times to provide the following prediction table:

Bib	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Predicted seconds behind
1	ROEISELAND Marte Olsbu	27%	53%	0s
10	ECKHOFF Tiril	10%	28%	33s
2	OEBERG Elvira	9%	27%	34s
3	HAUSER Lisa Theresa	8%	24%	36s
4	OEBERG Hanna	8%	23%	40s
18	PREUSS Franziska	7%	23%	37s
11	BRAISAZ Justine	4%	13%	65s
9	SIMON Julia	4%	13%	63s
6	HERRMANN Denise	3%	12%	64s
14	TANDREVOLD Ingrid Landmark	3%	11%	63s
17	PERSSON Linn	3%	10%	65s
8	DAVIDOVA Marketa	2%	9%	68s
5	CHEVALIER Anais	2%	9%	70s
7	WIERER Dorothea	2%	8%	71s
12	BESCOND Anais	2%	7%	77s
13	VOIGT Vanessa	1%	5%	75s
20	FIALKOVA Paulina	1%	3%	97s
21	HILDEBRAND Franziska	1%	3%	87s
19	CHEVALIER Chloe	1%	3%	101s
22	HINZ Vanessa	<1%	2%	96s
28	VITTOZZI Lisa	<1%	2%	107s
27	HAECKI Lena	<1%	2%	113s
15	JISLOVA Jessica	<1%	2%	97s
16	BRORSSON Mona	<1%	2%	103s
26	HETTICH Janina	<1%	2%	103s
23	NILSSON Stina	<1%	2%	118s
25	KNOTTEN Karoline Offigstad	<1%	1%	113s
24	LAUKKANEN Mari	<1%	1%	133s
30	BENDIKA Baiba	<1%	<1%	150s
29	ZDOUC Dunja	<1%	<1%	135s