Oslo Holmenkollen BMW IBU World Cup Biathlon 20.03.2022 men 15km Mass Start race preview

The biathlon model has simulated today’s men 15km Mass Start race 500 000 times to provide the following prediction table:

Bib	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Predicted seconds behind
1	FILLON MAILLET Quentin	27%	52%	0s
3	LAEGREID Sturla Holm	13%	34%	21s
10	LESSER Erik	10%	28%	28s
4	CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad	8%	26%	30s
9	BAKKEN Sivert Guttorm	6%	21%	38s
6	BOE Tarjei	5%	18%	43s
5	JACQUELIN Emilien	5%	16%	48s
8	DOLL Benedikt	4%	14%	52s
2	SAMUELSSON Sebastian	4%	13%	55s
20	PONSILUOMA Martin	2%	8%	72s
7	DESTHIEUX Simon	2%	7%	71s
26	ANDERSEN Aleksander Fjeld	2%	7%	70s
28	BJOENTEGAARD Erlend	1%	6%	74s
18	NAWRATH Philipp	1%	6%	78s
15	EDER Simon	1%	6%	67s
17	ANDERSEN Filip Fjeld	1%	5%	83s
12	SEPPALA Tero	1%	5%	82s
11	KUEHN Johannes	1%	4%	87s
19	GUIGONNAT Antonin	1%	4%	86s
14	REES Roman	1%	4%	81s
16	HOFER Lukas	1%	4%	86s
13	CLAUDE Fabien	1%	3%	95s
27	ZOBEL David	1%	3%	90s
24	KRCMAR Michal	<1%	1%	107s
25	LEITNER Felix	<1%	1%	114s
23	WEGER Benjamin	<1%	1%	114s
29	GIACOMEL Tommaso	<1%	1%	123s
21	BORMOLINI Thomas	<1%	1%	120s
22	STROLIA Vytautas	<1%	<1%	138s
30	VACLAVIK Adam	<1%	<1%	153s