Oslo Holmenkollen BMW IBU World Cup Biathlon 19.03.2022 men 12.5km Pursuit race preview

The biathlon model has simulated today’s men 12.5km Pursuit race 500 000 times to provide the following prediction table:

Bib	Gap	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Predicted seconds behind
2	22	FILLON MAILLET Quentin	37%	73%	0s
1	0	LAEGREID Sturla Holm	31%	68%	5s
5	40	LESSER Erik	10%	40%	35s
3	27	SAMUELSSON Sebastian	9%	34%	42s
7	54	CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad	4%	24%	52s
4	40	DOLL Benedikt	3%	18%	63s
6	41	NAWRATH Philipp	2%	11%	79s
10	69	PONSILUOMA Martin	1%	6%	96s
13	85	BOE Tarjei	1%	6%	87s
9	60	ANDERSEN Aleksander Fjeld	1%	5%	91s
16	89	BAKKEN Sivert Guttorm	1%	6%	88s
8	60	KUEHN Johannes	<1%	3%	107s
12	84	DESTHIEUX Simon	<1%	3%	104s
30	128	JACQUELIN Emilien	<1%	<1%	131s
17	91	BJOENTEGAARD Erlend	<1%	<1%	133s
11	82	ZOBEL David	<1%	1%	129s
22	108	GUIGONNAT Antonin	<1%	<1%	139s
14	87	GIACOMEL Tommaso	<1%	<1%	151s
19	100	ANDERSEN Filip Fjeld	<1%	<1%	148s
23	110	EDER Simon	<1%	<1%	131s
28	121	ASPENES Sverre Dahlen	<1%	<1%	145s
20	101	ULDAL Martin	<1%	<1%	149s
15	88	STROLIA Vytautas	<1%	<1%	183s
59	183	BARTKO Simon	0%	0%	383s
54	172	LAITINEN Heikki	0%	0%	331s
57	181	RAENKEL Raido	0%	0%	395s
56	177	NELIN Jesper	0%	0%	281s
55	173	INVENIUS Otto	0%	0%	315s
53	172	CLAUDE Florent	0%	0%	265s
60	186	PERROT Eric	0%	0%	295s