Oslo Holmenkollen BMW IBU World Cup Biathlon 18.03.2022 men 10km Sprint race preview

The biathlon model has simulated today’s men 10km Sprint race 500 000 times to provide the following prediction table:

Bib	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Predicted seconds behind
31	FILLON MAILLET Quentin	19%	40%	0s
18	LAEGREID Sturla Holm	10%	27%	11s
13	SAMUELSSON Sebastian	8%	21%	18s
48	BAKKEN Sivert Guttorm	6%	19%	20s
9	JACQUELIN Emilien	6%	17%	23s
22	BOE Tarjei	6%	18%	21s
15	CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad	5%	17%	23s
11	DOLL Benedikt	5%	15%	27s
32	PONSILUOMA Martin	5%	13%	32s
29	LESSER Erik	4%	12%	29s
40	NAWRATH Philipp	3%	9%	38s
25	DESTHIEUX Simon	2%	9%	36s
34	ANDERSEN Filip Fjeld	2%	9%	37s
6	KUEHN Johannes	2%	7%	45s
53	CLAUDE Fabien	2%	6%	46s
37	GUIGONNAT Antonin	2%	6%	43s
27	HOFER Lukas	1%	5%	45s
3	SEPPALA Tero	1%	5%	48s
43	ANDERSEN Aleksander Fjeld	1%	5%	46s
76	ZOBEL David	1%	4%	53s
58	ASPENES Sverre Dahlen	1%	4%	51s
45	REES Roman	1%	4%	47s
63	BJOENTEGAARD Erlend	1%	3%	52s
82	HORN Philipp	1%	3%	59s
20	EDER Simon	1%	2%	53s
26	KRCMAR Michal	<1%	2%	60s
5	WEGER Benjamin	<1%	2%	60s
42	LEITNER Felix	<1%	1%	63s
1	BORMOLINI Thomas	<1%	1%	65s
55	GIACOMEL Tommaso	<1%	1%	78s