Otepaeae BMW IBU World Cup Biathlon 12.03.2022 men 15km Mass Start race preview

The biathlon model has simulated today’s men 15km Mass Start race 500 000 times to provide the following prediction table:

Bib	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Predicted seconds behind
1	FILLON MAILLET Quentin	27%	52%	0s
4	LAEGREID Sturla Holm	9%	28%	29s
5	CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad	8%	25%	33s
2	JACQUELIN Emilien	7%	23%	38s
6	BOE Tarjei	7%	23%	36s
11	BAKKEN Sivert Guttorm	7%	23%	36s
14	LESSER Erik	6%	21%	38s
8	DOLL Benedikt	5%	18%	47s
3	SAMUELSSON Sebastian	4%	13%	57s
7	DESTHIEUX Simon	3%	11%	59s
23	PONSILUOMA Martin	2%	8%	75s
13	REES Roman	2%	7%	69s
17	GUIGONNAT Antonin	2%	6%	75s
9	SEPPALA Tero	1%	6%	79s
10	KUEHN Johannes	1%	5%	82s
22	NAWRATH Philipp	1%	5%	82s
15	EDER Simon	1%	6%	70s
12	CLAUDE Fabien	1%	4%	89s
16	HOFER Lukas	1%	4%	85s
21	WEGER Benjamin	1%	4%	84s
25	KRCMAR Michal	<1%	2%	97s
19	ANDERSEN Filip Fjeld	<1%	2%	104s
20	LEITNER Felix	<1%	2%	101s
28	GIACOMEL Tommaso	<1%	1%	116s
18	BORMOLINI Thomas	<1%	1%	108s
24	STROLIA Vytautas	<1%	1%	126s
30	GOW Christian	<1%	1%	121s
27	STALDER Sebastian	<1%	<1%	140s
29	KOBONOKI Tsukasa	<1%	<1%	166s
26	BURNOTTE Jules	<1%	<1%	177s