Kontiolahti BMW IBU World Cup Biathlon 06.03.2022 men 12.5km Pursuit race preview

The biathlon model has simulated today’s men 12.5km Pursuit race 500 000 times to provide the following prediction table:

Bib	Gap	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Predicted seconds behind
1	0	FILLON MAILLET Quentin	45%	72%	0s
5	32	SAMUELSSON Sebastian	11%	33%	44s
6	34	JACQUELIN Emilien	10%	33%	43s
4	31	BAKKEN Sivert Guttorm	10%	33%	43s
12	50	LESSER Erik	5%	20%	59s
22	69	LAEGREID Sturla Holm	3%	14%	68s
11	46	GUIGONNAT Antonin	2%	10%	79s
7	35	NAWRATH Philipp	2%	10%	83s
17	56	DESTHIEUX Simon	2%	10%	79s
24	75	CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad	2%	10%	77s
21	63	PONSILUOMA Martin	2%	7%	93s
10	45	EDER Simon	2%	9%	75s
8	43	HOFER Lukas	1%	8%	84s
3	30	KUEHN Johannes	1%	6%	96s
2	18	ANDERSEN Filip Fjeld	1%	4%	104s
18	59	SEPPALA Tero	1%	3%	106s
25	78	DOLL Benedikt	<1%	3%	105s
13	52	BORMOLINI Thomas	<1%	3%	108s
20	63	REES Roman	<1%	2%	104s
14	53	LEITNER Felix	<1%	2%	111s
19	62	KRCMAR Michal	<1%	2%	115s
9	44	FEMLING Peppe	<1%	2%	114s
32	85	ZOBEL David	<1%	1%	116s
26	79	ANDERSEN Aleksander Fjeld	<1%	1%	127s
16	54	ILIEV Vladimir	<1%	1%	140s
33	94	ASPENES Sverre Dahlen	<1%	1%	125s
15	54	STALDER Sebastian	<1%	<1%	161s
28	81	JAEGER Martin	<1%	<1%	173s
31	82	STROLIA Vytautas	<1%	<1%	175s
36	96	DOHERTY Sean	<1%	<1%	185s