Beijing Olympic Winter Games 18.02.2022 women 12.5km Mass Start race preview

The biathlon model has simulated today’s women 12.5km Mass Start race 500 000 times to provide the following prediction table:

Bib	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Predicted seconds behind
2	ROEISELAND Marte Olsbu	27%	51%	0s
9	OEBERG Hanna	11%	28%	36s
4	OEBERG Elvira	7%	21%	50s
6	ECKHOFF Tiril	6%	19%	53s
5	WIERER Dorothea	6%	18%	54s
8	HAUSER Lisa Theresa	5%	17%	57s
15	REZTSOVA Kristina	4%	15%	65s
14	SIMON Julia	4%	14%	66s
7	ALIMBEKAVA Dzinara	4%	14%	66s
25	PREUSS Franziska	3%	10%	75s
18	PERSSON Linn	2%	8%	84s
16	BRORSSON Mona	2%	8%	83s
10	BRAISAZ Justine	2%	8%	90s
11	SOLA Hanna	2%	7%	91s
3	CHEVALIER Anais	2%	8%	86s
13	DAVIDOVA Marketa	2%	8%	86s
23	NIGMATULLINA Uliana	2%	7%	86s
12	BESCOND Anais	2%	7%	89s
1	HERRMANN Denise	2%	7%	92s
27	HINZ Vanessa	1%	5%	99s
19	DZHYMA Juliya	1%	4%	106s
20	HOJNISZ Monika	1%	4%	102s
17	VOIGT Vanessa	1%	4%	101s
30	KAZAKEVICH Irina	<1%	2%	132s
26	HAECKI Lena	<1%	1%	135s
21	STREMOUS Alina	<1%	1%	132s
22	FIALKOVA Paulina	<1%	1%	138s
24	INNERHOFER Katharina	<1%	1%	158s
28	CHARVATOVA Lucie	<1%	<1%	194s
29	IRWIN Deedra	<1%	<1%	181s