Beijing Olympic Winter Games 18.02.2022 men 15km Mass Start race preview

The biathlon model has simulated today’s men 15km Mass Start race 500 000 times to provide the following prediction table:

Bib	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Predicted seconds behind
1	FILLON MAILLET Quentin	28%	54%	0s
2	BOE Johannes Thingnes	18%	42%	17s
4	BOE Tarjei	7%	23%	44s
6	JACQUELIN Emilien	6%	19%	52s
9	LAEGREID Sturla Holm	5%	18%	53s
10	LOGINOV Alexander	5%	17%	57s
8	CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad	4%	16%	58s
5	LATYPOV Eduard	4%	13%	67s
12	DOLL Benedikt	3%	12%	69s
7	SAMUELSSON Sebastian	2%	10%	76s
16	TSVETKOV Maxim	2%	9%	75s
11	DESTHIEUX Simon	2%	8%	78s
18	PONSILUOMA Martin	2%	7%	87s
3	SMOLSKI Anton	2%	7%	85s
13	CLAUDE Fabien	2%	7%	87s
27	NAWRATH Philipp	1%	6%	89s
14	SEPPALA Tero	1%	4%	100s
19	HOFER Lukas	1%	4%	99s
17	REES Roman	1%	4%	96s
26	EDER Simon	1%	4%	94s
15	KUEHN Johannes	1%	3%	106s
20	PIDRUCHNYI Dmytro	1%	3%	109s
22	LEITNER Felix	<1%	2%	114s
29	KRCMAR Michal	<1%	2%	119s
28	FAK Jakov	<1%	1%	121s
23	WINDISCH Dominik	<1%	1%	135s
24	PRYMA Artem	<1%	1%	134s
21	GOW Scott	<1%	1%	140s
25	GOW Christian	<1%	<1%	146s
30	BURNOTTE Jules	<1%	<1%	200s