Beijing Olympic Winter Games 13.02.2022 women 10km Pursuit race preview

The biathlon model has simulated today’s women 10km Pursuit race 500 000 times to provide the following prediction table:

Bib	Gap	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Predicted seconds behind
1	0	ROEISELAND Marte Olsbu	66%	89%	0s
2	31	OEBERG Elvira	10%	43%	69s
3	37	WIERER Dorothea	9%	41%	72s
4	47	HAUSER Lisa Theresa	6%	32%	82s
11	76	ECKHOFF Tiril	2%	14%	113s
6	65	REZTSOVA Kristina	2%	13%	117s
19	95	OEBERG Hanna	1%	12%	115s
5	60	TANDREVOLD Ingrid Landmark	1%	9%	122s
9	69	BESCOND Anais	1%	9%	125s
15	89	ALIMBEKAVA Dzinara	1%	9%	122s
8	68	DZHYMA Juliya	<1%	5%	140s
12	80	PERSSON Linn	<1%	4%	142s
29	116	SIMON Julia	<1%	4%	149s
7	66	MAGNUSSON Anna	<1%	3%	148s
13	88	NIGMATULLINA Uliana	<1%	3%	145s
30	117	PREUSS Franziska	<1%	2%	152s
26	112	SOLA Hanna	<1%	2%	175s
22	105	HERRMANN Denise	<1%	1%	174s
18	91	VOIGT Vanessa	<1%	1%	157s
16	89	HOJNISZ Monika	<1%	1%	160s
10	75	STREMOUS Alina	<1%	1%	173s
23	106	HAECKI Lena	<1%	1%	182s
20	99	KAZAKEVICH Irina	<1%	1%	182s
17	91	TODOROVA Milena	<1%	<1%	194s
14	88	FIALKOVA Paulina	<1%	<1%	196s
21	102	INNERHOFER Katharina	<1%	<1%	220s
31	118	JISLOVA Jessica	<1%	<1%	207s
48	154	BRAISAZ Justine	<1%	<1%	229s
24	107	MERKUSHYNA Anastasiya	<1%	<1%	217s
36	145	VITTOZZI Lisa	<1%	<1%	231s