Beijing Olympic Winter Games 13.02.2022 men 12.5km Pursuit race preview

The biathlon model has simulated today’s men 12.5km Pursuit race 500 000 times to provide the following prediction table:

Bib	Gap	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Predicted seconds behind
1	0	BOE Johannes Thingnes	39%	73%	0s
2	26	FILLON MAILLET Quentin	33%	69%	5s
4	41	TSVETKOV Maxim	8%	35%	42s
3	39	BOE Tarjei	6%	27%	52s
9	66	JACQUELIN Emilien	3%	19%	63s
7	62	LAEGREID Sturla Holm	3%	21%	57s
5	52	SAMUELSSON Sebastian	3%	15%	71s
6	54	PONSILUOMA Martin	1%	8%	92s
8	65	DOLL Benedikt	1%	8%	87s
11	74	LATYPOV Eduard	1%	5%	98s
20	98	CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad	<1%	4%	96s
10	73	SMOLSKI Anton	<1%	3%	107s
13	79	PIDRUCHNYI Dmytro	<1%	3%	111s
21	101	CLAUDE Fabien	<1%	2%	122s
18	87	EDER Simon	<1%	2%	105s
14	79	HOFER Lukas	<1%	1%	123s
24	105	DESTHIEUX Simon	<1%	1%	123s
16	82	KRCMAR Michal	<1%	1%	129s
17	84	REES Roman	<1%	1%	125s
22	103	NAWRATH Philipp	<1%	1%	138s
12	75	GOW Christian	<1%	1%	128s
19	98	SEROKHVOSTOV Daniil	<1%	<1%	148s
38	135	LOGINOV Alexander	<1%	<1%	140s
15	79	PRYMA Artem	<1%	<1%	146s
25	107	SEPPALA Tero	<1%	<1%	154s
33	113	KUEHN Johannes	<1%	<1%	165s
23	104	BORMOLINI Thomas	<1%	<1%	165s
26	108	FAK Jakov	<1%	<1%	157s
30	111	WINDISCH Dominik	<1%	<1%	192s
57	167	LABASTAU Mikita	0%	0%	263s