Ruhpolding BMW IBU World Cup Biathlon 16.01.2022 women 10km Pursuit race preview

The biathlon model has simulated today’s women 10km Pursuit race 500 000 times to provide the following prediction table:

Bib	Gap	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Predicted seconds behind
1	0	OEBERG Elvira	32%	59%	0s
2	22	ROEISELAND Marte Olsbu	17%	45%	16s
11	57	OEBERG Hanna	12%	35%	28s
4	30	ALIMBEKAVA Dzinara	8%	28%	36s
		VITTOZZI Lisa	7%	23%	45s
3	30	WIERER Dorothea	5%	21%	45s
6	42	HAUSER Lisa Theresa	5%	20%	44s
5	40	BRAISAZ Justine	2%	9%	76s
		SKOTTHEIM Johanna	2%	11%	59s
10	56	BRORSSON Mona	2%	9%	68s
14	68	CHEVALIER Anais	1%	6%	77s
23	83	SIMON Julia	1%	6%	84s
7	48	BESCOND Anais	1%	6%	79s
9	56	PERSSON Linn	1%	4%	84s
20	81	REZTSOVA Kristina	<1%	3%	94s
19	81	ECKHOFF Tiril	<1%	3%	94s
		CHU Yuanmeng	<1%	3%	80s
8	51	MIRONOVA Svetlana	<1%	2%	105s
		VOBORNIKOVA Tereza	<1%	2%	98s
17	78	HILDEBRAND Franziska	<1%	1%	95s
24	87	HERRMANN Denise	<1%	1%	117s
36	104	SOLA Hanna	<1%	1%	129s
		MERKUSHYNA Anastasiya	<1%	1%	115s
16	78	CHEVALIER Chloe	<1%	<1%	127s
12	65	KNOTTEN Karoline Offigstad	<1%	<1%	114s
27	91	DAVIDOVA Marketa	<1%	<1%	126s
		OJA Regina	<1%	<1%	135s
		MENG Fanqi	<1%	<1%	107s
		TALIHAERM Johanna	<1%	<1%	142s
25	88	MAGNUSSON Anna	<1%	<1%	137s