Ruhpolding BMW IBU World Cup Biathlon 16.01.2022 men 12.5km Pursuit race preview

The biathlon model has simulated today’s men 12.5km Pursuit race 500 000 times to provide the following prediction table:

Bib	Gap	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Predicted seconds behind
1	0	FILLON MAILLET Quentin	54%	78%	0s
2	7	DOLL Benedikt	9%	31%	52s
18	62	SAMUELSSON Sebastian	5%	21%	65s
3	32	SMOLSKI Anton	4%	17%	71s
9	50	DESTHIEUX Simon	4%	18%	67s
6	43	LESSER Erik	4%	19%	66s
7	47	PIDRUCHNYI Dmytro	3%	15%	74s
21	66	TSVETKOV Maxim	2%	14%	71s
15	61	BJOENTEGAARD Erlend	2%	9%	84s
14	58	PONSILUOMA Martin	2%	8%	94s
12	54	EDER Simon	1%	9%	77s
11	54	ANDERSEN Aleksander Fjeld	1%	8%	89s
53	103	JACQUELIN Emilien	1%	6%	91s
32	80	LOGINOV Alexander	1%	6%	94s
		RUNNALLS Adam	1%	5%	107s
37	82	CLAUDE Fabien	1%	5%	102s
5	42	SEPPALA Tero	1%	4%	104s
16	61	HOFER Lukas	1%	4%	101s
20	64	REES Roman	<1%	3%	101s
40	83	DALE Johannes	<1%	2%	113s
24	71	ZOBEL David	<1%	2%	118s
35	81	KHALILI Said Karimulla	<1%	2%	107s
8	49	PERROT Eric	<1%	2%	116s
4	34	STROLIA Vytautas	<1%	1%	131s
23	71	SEROKHVOSTOV Daniil	<1%	1%	134s
41	85	NAWRATH Philipp	<1%	1%	125s
31	79	POVARNITSYN Alexander	<1%	1%	118s
33	80	BORMOLINI Thomas	<1%	1%	122s
50	94	GUIGONNAT Antonin	<1%	1%	124s
26	75	DUDCHENKO Anton	<1%	1%	121s