Sportindepth’s biathlon model has simulated today’s men 12.5km pursuit race 500 000 times to provide the following prediction table:
Bib | Gap | Name | Country | Chances of various positions | Winning chance | Chance for a medal | Predicted seconds behind |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0 | BOE Johannes Thingnes | 25% | 55% | 0s | ||
4 | 21 | FILLON MAILLET Quentin | 20% | 49% | 6s | ||
7 | 33 | JACQUELIN Emilien | 20% | 49% | 6s | ||
8 | 39 | CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad | 7% | 26% | 29s | ||
9 | 41 | SAMUELSSON Sebastian | 6% | 22% | 36s | ||
5 | 25 | LAEGREID Sturla Holm | 6% | 26% | 26s | ||
2 | 7 | LATYPOV Eduard | 5% | 18% | 43s | ||
13 | 52 | DESTHIEUX Simon | 2% | 11% | 53s | ||
15 | 53 | BOE Tarjei | 2% | 11% | 52s | ||
6 | 27 | SMOLSKI Anton | 2% | 8% | 63s | ||
12 | 49 | LOGINOV Alexander | 1% | 8% | 61s | ||
3 | 18 | ANDERSEN Filip Fjeld | 1% | 4% | 81s | ||
22 | 72 | GUIGONNAT Antonin | <1% | 2% | 85s | ||
11 | 48 | KHALILI Said Karimulla | <1% | 2% | 80s | ||
16 | 54 | NAWRATH Philipp | <1% | 1% | 101s | ||
14 | 52 | POVARNITSYN Alexander | <1% | 1% | 98s | ||
24 | 74 | DOLL Benedikt | <1% | 1% | 107s | ||
25 | 74 | TOMSHIN Vasilii | <1% | 1% | 99s | ||
21 | 70 | KUEHN Johannes | <1% | <1% | 118s | ||
26 | 78 | LESSER Erik | <1% | 1% | 103s | ||
10 | 43 | LAPSHIN Timofei | <1% | <1% | 119s | ||
20 | 67 | NELIN Jesper | <1% | <1% | 124s | ||
18 | 59 | SEROKHVOSTOV Daniil | <1% | <1% | 117s | ||
17 | 59 | BORMOLINI Thomas | <1% | <1% | 111s | ||
28 | 83 | WEGER Benjamin | <1% | <1% | 111s | ||
30 | 86 | HOFER Lukas | <1% | <1% | 119s | ||
40 | 109 | CLAUDE Fabien | <1% | <1% | 128s | ||
23 | 74 | LEITNER Felix | <1% | <1% | 118s | ||
29 | 83 | HORN Philipp | <1% | <1% | 133s | ||
34 | 98 | EDER Simon | <1% | <1% | 107s |