April 13, 2021

Oestersund BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 20.03.2021 men 12.5km Pursuit race preview

Sturla Holm Lægreid, an athlete from Norway, has a 13 percent chance to win today’s pursuit race in Oestersund and a 41 percent chance to win any medal, based on our biathlon simulation. Sturla Holm Lægreid already won two world cup events in the pursuit discipline in the current season. The first victory was in Hochfilzen and the second in Oberhof.

The simulation model predicts a Norwegian biathlete, Tarjei Boe, a winning chance of 18 percent, 47 percent chance to win any medal and a second behind Sturla Holm Lægreid. Tarjei Boe has a victory in pursuit discipline earlier this month in Nove Mesto.

Quentin Fillon Maillet from France has a 17 percent chance to win the race, 45 percent chance to get on the podium and some three seconds behind the winner. He already managed to win two pursuit races this season, including the recent pursuit race on Nove Mesto.

Johannes Thingnes Boe is a main favourite in the 2020-21 IBU Biathlon World Cup season simulation in the pursuit discipline with a 60 percent chance to win and 329 points scored. He also is the main favourite in the overall season simulation with a 63 percent chance to win and 1016 points scored. Our biathlon model predicts him to win today’s race with a 16 percent chance, 42 chance to win any medal and some six seconds behind the winner. He finished third in the world championship 2021 in Pokljuka and he has four more podiums in the current season in pursuit races.

Sebastian Samuelsson from Sweden has a 16 percent chance to win the race, a 40 percent chance to win any medal and some seven seconds behind Sturla Holm Lægreid, according to the biathlon model. The Swede won a silver medal during the 2018 Winter Olympics in pursuit discipline in Pyeongchang and he finished second best in the world championship 2021 in Pokljuka. Sebastian Samuelsson won a world cup in Kontiolahti in pursuit discipline earlier this season.

Lukas Hofer, an Italian biathlete, has a nine percent chance to win the race, a 29 percent chance to get any medal and some 22 seconds behind the winner, based on our biathlon model. Lukas Hofer won a sprint race yesterday.

The Frenchman Simon Desthieux has five winning chance in today’s race, 21 percent chance to win any medal and some 31 seconds behind Sturla Holm Lægreid, according to the simulation.

One more contender from France, Émilien Jacquelin, has one percent chance to win today’s race, four percent chance to win any medal and some 68 seconds behind the leader, according to our model. He is a world champion in pursuit discipline. He managed to win a gold medal earlier this year in Pokljuka.

Our biathlon model predicts Johannes Dale from Norway a three percent chance to win a race, a 15 percent chance to win any medal and some 40 seconds behind the winner. He had two podiums in the current season in pursuit discipline. In Hochfilzen he managed to finish third and in Oberhof he finished second best.

Bib Gap Name Country Chances of various positions Winning chance Chance for a medal Projected seconds behind
6 32 LAEGREID Sturla Holm
13% 41% 0s
3 14 BOE Tarjei
18% 47% 1s
5 29 FILLON MAILLET Quentin
17% 45% 3s
7 46 BOE Johannes Thingnes
16% 42% 6s
2 4 SAMUELSSON Sebastian
16% 40% 7s
1 0 HOFER Lukas
9% 29% 22s
4 22 DESTHIEUX Simon
5% 21% 31s
8 51 DALE Johannes
3% 15% 40s
12 65 CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad
1% 4% 67s
24 83 JACQUELIN Emilien
1% 4% 68s
13 65 EDER Simon
<1% 1% 78s
14 67 PONSILUOMA Martin
1% 3% 81s
16 73 ANDERSEN Aleksander Fjeld
<1% 1% 92s
31 89 DOLL Benedikt
<1% 1% 98s
10 58 REES Roman
<1% 1% 99s
32 90 FAK Jakov
<1% 1% 99s
11 62 GARANICHEV Evgeniy
<1% 1% 101s
33 91 LESSER Erik
<1% 1% 103s
26 85 LOGINOV Alexander
<1% 1% 104s
21 79 ELISEEV Matvey
<1% <1% 107s
18 75 KRCMAR Michal
<1% <1% 113s
23 83 LATYPOV Eduard
<1% <1% 114s
9 55 ILIEV Vladimir
<1% 1% 117s
34 96 PIDRUCHNYI Dmytro
<1% <1% 122s
29 89 WEGER Benjamin
<1% <1% 124s
17 74 SMOLSKI Anton
<1% <1% 124s
20 78 LEITNER Felix
<1% <1% 132s
41 112 GUIGONNAT Antonin
<1% <1% 141s
36 101 NELIN Jesper
<1% <1% 143s
22 80 BROWN Jake
<1% <1% 173s

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Sportindepth has an ambition to dive deeper into the world of sports and hopes to provide in-depth content for Soccer, Athletics and various Winter Sports.

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