Oestersund BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 20.03.2021 men 12.5km Pursuit race preview

Sturla Holm Lægreid, an athlete from Norway, has a 13 percent chance to win today’s pursuit race in Oestersund and a 41 percent chance to win any medal, based on our biathlon simulation. Sturla Holm Lægreid already won two world cup events in the pursuit discipline in the current season. The first victory was in Hochfilzen and the second in Oberhof.

The simulation model predicts a Norwegian biathlete, Tarjei Boe, a winning chance of 18 percent, 47 percent chance to win any medal and a second behind Sturla Holm Lægreid. Tarjei Boe has a victory in pursuit discipline earlier this month in Nove Mesto.

Quentin Fillon Maillet from France has a 17 percent chance to win the race, 45 percent chance to get on the podium and some three seconds behind the winner. He already managed to win two pursuit races this season, including the recent pursuit race on Nove Mesto.

Johannes Thingnes Boe is a main favourite in the 2020-21 IBU Biathlon World Cup season simulation in the pursuit discipline with a 60 percent chance to win and 329 points scored. He also is the main favourite in the overall season simulation with a 63 percent chance to win and 1016 points scored. Our biathlon model predicts him to win today’s race with a 16 percent chance, 42 chance to win any medal and some six seconds behind the winner. He finished third in the world championship 2021 in Pokljuka and he has four more podiums in the current season in pursuit races.

Sebastian Samuelsson from Sweden has a 16 percent chance to win the race, a 40 percent chance to win any medal and some seven seconds behind Sturla Holm Lægreid, according to the biathlon model. The Swede won a silver medal during the 2018 Winter Olympics in pursuit discipline in Pyeongchang and he finished second best in the world championship 2021 in Pokljuka. Sebastian Samuelsson won a world cup in Kontiolahti in pursuit discipline earlier this season.

Lukas Hofer, an Italian biathlete, has a nine percent chance to win the race, a 29 percent chance to get any medal and some 22 seconds behind the winner, based on our biathlon model. Lukas Hofer won a sprint race yesterday.

The Frenchman Simon Desthieux has five winning chance in today’s race, 21 percent chance to win any medal and some 31 seconds behind Sturla Holm Lægreid, according to the simulation.

One more contender from France, Émilien Jacquelin, has one percent chance to win today’s race, four percent chance to win any medal and some 68 seconds behind the leader, according to our model. He is a world champion in pursuit discipline. He managed to win a gold medal earlier this year in Pokljuka.

Our biathlon model predicts Johannes Dale from Norway a three percent chance to win a race, a 15 percent chance to win any medal and some 40 seconds behind the winner. He had two podiums in the current season in pursuit discipline. In Hochfilzen he managed to finish third and in Oberhof he finished second best.

Bib	Gap	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Projected seconds behind
6	32	LAEGREID Sturla Holm	13%	41%	0s
3	14	BOE Tarjei	18%	47%	1s
5	29	FILLON MAILLET Quentin	17%	45%	3s
7	46	BOE Johannes Thingnes	16%	42%	6s
2	4	SAMUELSSON Sebastian	16%	40%	7s
1	0	HOFER Lukas	9%	29%	22s
4	22	DESTHIEUX Simon	5%	21%	31s
8	51	DALE Johannes	3%	15%	40s
12	65	CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad	1%	4%	67s
24	83	JACQUELIN Emilien	1%	4%	68s
13	65	EDER Simon	<1%	1%	78s
14	67	PONSILUOMA Martin	1%	3%	81s
16	73	ANDERSEN Aleksander Fjeld	<1%	1%	92s
31	89	DOLL Benedikt	<1%	1%	98s
10	58	REES Roman	<1%	1%	99s
32	90	FAK Jakov	<1%	1%	99s
11	62	GARANICHEV Evgeniy	<1%	1%	101s
33	91	LESSER Erik	<1%	1%	103s
26	85	LOGINOV Alexander	<1%	1%	104s
21	79	ELISEEV Matvey	<1%	<1%	107s
18	75	KRCMAR Michal	<1%	<1%	113s
23	83	LATYPOV Eduard	<1%	<1%	114s
9	55	ILIEV Vladimir	<1%	1%	117s
34	96	PIDRUCHNYI Dmytro	<1%	<1%	122s
29	89	WEGER Benjamin	<1%	<1%	124s
17	74	SMOLSKI Anton	<1%	<1%	124s
20	78	LEITNER Felix	<1%	<1%	132s
41	112	GUIGONNAT Antonin	<1%	<1%	141s
36	101	NELIN Jesper	<1%	<1%	143s
22	80	BROWN Jake	<1%	<1%	173s