July 23, 2021

Oestersund BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 19.03.2021 men 10km Sprint race preview

Today’s race favourite is an athlete from Norway, Johannes Thingnes Boe. Our simulation model predicts him to win the race with a 30 percent chance and a 55 percent chance to win any medal.

Johannes Thingnes Boe has already won in our 2020-21 IBU Biathlon World Cup season simulation in the sprint discipline. In the season overall race simulation he is leading with 78 chance to win and 1011 points scored.

He managed to win three sprint races in the world cup events, earlier this season. The first win was in Kontiolahti and two in Oberhof. Furthermore, he won two bronze medals in the sprint disciplines in the current season: in Kontiolahti and in Hochfilzen.

Sturla Holm Lægreid has an eight percent chance to win the race, a 26 percent chance to win any medal and some 19 seconds behind the winner, according to our biathlon model. He has won a sprint race earlier this season in Hochfilzen, was second best in the sprint race during the event in Oberhof, and got the bronze medal in the sprint discipline in Oberhof as well.

The simulation model predicts Tarjei Boe a nine percent chance to win the race, a 26 percent chance to win any medal and some 24 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe, based on the biathlon model. Tarjei Boe already won a sprint race earlier in the current season in the world cup during the race in Kontiolahti.

The next contender from Norway is Johannes Dale has an eight percent chance to win the race, 23 percent chance to win any medal and some 27 seconds behind the leader. Johannes Dale has a victory this season in the sprint race in Hochfilzen and second place in the same location.

The Frenchman Quentin Fillon Maillet has a seven percent winning chance, a 21 percent chance to win any medal and some 28 seconds behind the leader, based on the biathlon simulation. He won the sprint race in Nove Mesto, earlier this month. One more athlete from France, Émilien Jacquelin, has a five percent chance to win the race, sixteen percent chance to win any medal and some 34 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe. He managed to win the bronze medal in the world championship 2021 in Pokljuka.

Sebastian Samuelsson from Sweden, has a three percent chance to win a race, a twelve percent chance to climb on the podium and some 40 seconds behind the winner. Sebastian Samuelsson won two silver medals in the current season, in Kontiolahti and in Nove Mesto. His team mate Martin Ponsiluoma has a three percent chance to win the race, a twelve percent chance to win any medal and some 45 seconds behind the winner.

Our biathlon model predicts to a German athlete Benedikt Doll a winning chance of three percent, eleven percent chance to get any medal and some 43 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe.

Simon Desthieux managed to win the sprint race in Nove Mesto earlier this month. For today’s race our model predicts him a winning chance of two percent, nine percent chance to win any medal and some 46 seconds behind the winner.

Bib Name Country Chances of various positions Winning chance Chance for a medal Projected seconds behind
1 BOE Johannes Thingnes
30% 55% 0s
12 LAEGREID Sturla Holm
8% 26% 19s
17 BOE Tarjei
9% 26% 24s
42 DALE Johannes
8% 23% 27s
53 FILLON MAILLET Quentin
7% 21% 28s
58 JACQUELIN Emilien
5% 16% 34s
27 SAMUELSSON Sebastian
3% 12% 40s
32 DOLL Benedikt
3% 11% 43s
60 CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad
2% 9% 43s
10 PONSILUOMA Martin
3% 12% 45s
46 DESTHIEUX Simon
2% 9% 46s
29 FAK Jakov
2% 7% 48s
34 LOGINOV Alexander
2% 8% 48s
64 ANDERSEN Aleksander Fjeld
2% 7% 52s
4 HOFER Lukas
2% 6% 53s
7 LESSER Erik
1% 5% 55s
79 GUIGONNAT Antonin
1% 4% 57s
39 LATYPOV Eduard
1% 4% 61s
83 NAWRATH Philipp
1% 3% 64s
2 PIDRUCHNYI Dmytro
1% 3% 65s
86 CLAUDE Fabien
1% 4% 65s
25 EDER Simon
<1% 2% 66s
20 ELISEEV Matvey
<1% 2% 66s
36 WEGER Benjamin
<1% 2% 67s
18 NELIN Jesper
1% 3% 69s
15 KRCMAR Michal
<1% 1% 73s
9 SMOLSKI Anton
<1% 2% 74s
16 KUEHN Johannes
<1% 2% 79s
55 STROEMSHEIM Endre
<1% 1% 80s
6 WINDISCH Dominik
<1% 1% 81s

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Sportindepth has an ambition to dive deeper into the world of sports and hopes to provide in-depth content for Soccer, Athletics and various Winter Sports.

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