Our biathlon simulation model predicts Sturla Holm Lægreid to win today’s pursuit race with an 18 percent chance and a 46 percent chance for a podium. Sturla Holm Lægreid managed to win two pursuit races earlier this season: in Hochfilzen and in Oberhof.
Also, he has similar winning chances with our 2020-21 IBU Biathlon World Cup season simulation leader, Johannes Thingnes Boe in pursuit discipline. Sturla Holm Lægreid has a 46 percent chance to win the pursuit race according to the season simulation.
Quentin Fillon Maillet has a 21 percent chance to win a race, 47 percent chance to win any medal and some six seconds behind the winner, according to our biathlon simulation. He has one gold medal in the current season in the pursuit discipline during the world cup in Hochfilzen. At the world championship 2021 in Pokluka, Quentin Fillon Maillet finished in the fourth position.
His team mate Émilien Jacquelin has an eight percent chance to win a race, a 24 percent chance to climb on the podium and some 31 seconds behind the winner, according to our model. Émilien Jacquelin is a world champion in pursuit discipline. He managed to win a gold medal earlier this year in Pokljuka.
The biathlon model predicts Johannes Thingnes Boe a winning chance of 20 percent, 45 percent chance get any medal and some nine seconds behind Sturla Holm Lægreid. Johannes Thingnes Boe is the main favourite in both, overall and pursuit disciplines in our season simulation. Overall season simulation predicts him to win races overall with a 68 percent chance and in the pursuit discipline with a 48 percent chance. He managed to win the bronze medal in the latest world championship in Pokljuka and he finished second-best in the pursuit discipline in Nove Mesto last week.
The winner of last week’s pursuit race Tarjei Boe has a nine percent winning chance, a 28 percent chance to get any medal and some 27 seconds behind Sturla Holm Lægreid, according to our biathlon simulation.
Another athlete from Norway, Johannes Dale, has a four percent winning chance, 14 percent chance to win any medal, 47 seconds behind the leader, according to our biathlon model. He had good runs in pursuit races earlier this season, one silver and one bronze medal on his account.
The athlete from Germany, Arnd Peiffer, has a two percent chance to win today’s race, an eleven percent chance to win any medal and some 52 seconds behind the winner.
Sebastian Samuelsson from Sweden has a three percent chance to win a race, a twelve percent chance to get any medal and some 53 seconds behind Sturla Holm Lægreid. Sebastian Samuelsson is a silver medalist in 2018 Winter Olympics and also a silver medalist in Pokljuka’s world championship 2021.
Simon Desthieux from France finished third in the pursuit race earlier in Nove Mesto. Our biathlon model predicts him a winning chance of one percent, six percent chance to win any medal and some 69 seconds behind the winner.
|Bib||Gap||Name||Country||Chances of various positions||Winning chance||Chance for a medal||Projected seconds behind|
|5||23||LAEGREID Sturla Holm||
|1||0||FILLON MAILLET Quentin||
|9||37||BOE Johannes Thingnes||
|20||55||CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad||
|38||104||KHALILI Said Karimulla||