Nove Mesto BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 13.03.2021 men 12.5km pursuit race preview

Our biathlon simulation model predicts Sturla Holm Lægreid to win today’s pursuit race with an 18 percent chance and a 46 percent chance for a podium. Sturla Holm Lægreid managed to win two pursuit races earlier this season: in Hochfilzen and in Oberhof.

Also, he has similar winning chances with our 2020-21 IBU Biathlon World Cup season simulation leader, Johannes Thingnes Boe in pursuit discipline. Sturla Holm Lægreid has a 46 percent chance to win the pursuit race according to the season simulation.

Quentin Fillon Maillet has a 21 percent chance to win a race, 47 percent chance to win any medal and some six seconds behind the winner, according to our biathlon simulation. He has one gold medal in the current season in the pursuit discipline during the world cup in Hochfilzen. At the world championship 2021 in Pokluka, Quentin Fillon Maillet finished in the fourth position.

His team mate Émilien Jacquelin has an eight percent chance to win a race, a 24 percent chance to climb on the podium and some 31 seconds behind the winner, according to our model. Émilien Jacquelin is a world champion in pursuit discipline. He managed to win a gold medal earlier this year in Pokljuka.

The biathlon model predicts Johannes Thingnes Boe a winning chance of 20 percent, 45 percent chance get any medal and some nine seconds behind Sturla Holm Lægreid. Johannes Thingnes Boe is the main favourite in both, overall and pursuit disciplines in our season simulation. Overall season simulation predicts him to win races overall with a 68 percent chance and in the pursuit discipline with a 48 percent chance. He managed to win the bronze medal in the latest world championship in Pokljuka and he finished second-best in the pursuit discipline in Nove Mesto last week.

The winner of last week’s pursuit race Tarjei Boe has a nine percent winning chance, a 28 percent chance to get any medal and some 27 seconds behind Sturla Holm Lægreid, according to our biathlon simulation.

Another athlete from Norway, Johannes Dale, has a four percent winning chance, 14 percent chance to win any medal, 47 seconds behind the leader, according to our biathlon model. He had good runs in pursuit races earlier this season, one silver and one bronze medal on his account.

The athlete from Germany, Arnd Peiffer, has a two percent chance to win today’s race, an eleven percent chance to win any medal and some 52 seconds behind the winner.

Sebastian Samuelsson from Sweden has a three percent chance to win a race, a twelve percent chance to get any medal and some 53 seconds behind Sturla Holm Lægreid. Sebastian Samuelsson is a silver medalist in 2018 Winter Olympics and also a silver medalist in Pokljuka’s world championship 2021.

Simon Desthieux from France finished third in the pursuit race earlier in Nove Mesto. Our biathlon model predicts him a winning chance of one percent, six percent chance to win any medal and some 69 seconds behind the winner.

Bib	Gap	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Projected seconds behind
5	23	LAEGREID Sturla Holm	18%	46%	0s
1	0	FILLON MAILLET Quentin	21%	47%	6s
9	37	BOE Johannes Thingnes	20%	45%	9s
2	11	BOE Tarjei	9%	28%	27s
4	23	JACQUELIN Emilien	8%	24%	31s
8	37	DALE Johannes	4%	14%	47s
13	46	PEIFFER Arnd	2%	11%	52s
7	30	SAMUELSSON Sebastian	3%	12%	53s
3	15	HOFER Lukas	3%	12%	54s
6	24	GUIGONNAT Antonin	3%	11%	56s
10	40	FAK Jakov	2%	8%	58s
11	40	EDER Simon	1%	6%	60s
20	55	CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad	1%	6%	65s
21	56	DESTHIEUX Simon	1%	6%	68s
17	50	LOGINOV Alexander	1%	5%	70s
15	49	DOLL Benedikt	1%	6%	71s
19	55	LESSER Erik	<1%	3%	80s
14	46	PONSILUOMA Martin	1%	4%	87s
16	50	ELISEEV Matvey	<1%	1%	93s
12	45	KRCMAR Michal	<1%	1%	95s
25	67	LATYPOV Eduard	<1%	1%	110s
18	54	SMOLSKI Anton	<1%	<1%	117s
22	57	CLAUDE Fabien	<1%	1%	119s
26	73	WEGER Benjamin	<1%	<1%	121s
23	62	NELIN Jesper	<1%	<1%	121s
35	93	PIDRUCHNYI Dmytro	<1%	<1%	131s
30	83	GARANICHEV Evgeniy	<1%	<1%	137s
27	77	REES Roman	<1%	<1%	139s
28	77	WINDISCH Dominik	<1%	<1%	154s
38	104	KHALILI Said Karimulla	<1%	<1%	157s