by According to our simulation model, an athlete from Norway, Johannes Thingnes Boe is the main favourite in today’s men sprints race in Nove Mesto.
The biathlon model estimates him to win a race with a 30 percent chance and a 55 percent chance to win any medal. Johannes Thingnes Boe is the main favourite in both, overall and sprint disciplines in our season simulation. Overall season simulation predicts him to win races overall with an 81 percent chance and in the sprint discipline with a 99 percent chance. He managed to win three sprint races in the world cups, earlier this season, one in Kontiolahti and two in Oberhof. Johannes Thingnes Boe finished second in the pursuit discipline last week in the same location.
Another biathlete from Norway who has good prospects from today’s sprint race is Sturla Holm Lægreid. Our biathlon simulation predicts him to win the race with a nine percent chance, a 28 percent chance to climb on the podium and some 17 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe. He managed to win a sprint race in the world cup in Hochfilzen already in the current season.
Sturla Holm Lægreid finished fourth in the sprint 1 in Nove Mesto last week.
The Frenchman Quentin Fillon Maillet has an eight percent chance to win a race, 24 percent chance to win any medal and some 26 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe, according to our biathlon simulation.
Johannes Dale, a Norwegian biathlete, has a seven percent chance to win a race, a 21 percent chance to win any medal, and some 29 seconds behind the winner, based on our simulation. He managed to win a race in sprint discipline earlier this season in the world cup event in Hochfilzen.
Tarjei Boe also has good expectations from today’s sprint race. Our simulation model predicts him to win a race with a six percent chance, a 20 percent chance to climb on the podium and some 34 seconds behind the winner.
He managed to show the best performance in the pursuit competition in Nove Mesto last Sunday.
Our simulation model predicts to Émilien Jacquelin a winning chance of four percent, 15 percent chance to win any medal and some 36 seconds behind the winner. He managed to win the bronze medal in the world championship 2021 in Pokljuka, in the sprint discipline.
Two contenders from Germany have almost equal chances in that race, according to our model. Arnd Peiffer and Benedikt Doll have a four percent chance to win a race, fourteen percent chance to win any medal, based on simulation.
Arnd Peiffer has some 36 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe, and Benedikt Doll has some 41 seconds behind the Norwegian as projected finishing time, shown by the biathlon model.
Sebastian Samuelsson from Sweden managed was second-best in the sprint race in Nove Mesto last week. For today’s race, biathlon simulation predicts him a winning chance of three percent, twelve percent chance to win any medal and some 41 seconds behind the winner.
One more athlete from France, Simon Desthieux won last week’s sprint race. Our simulation model predicts him to win today’s race with a three percent chance, a ten percent chance to win any medal and some 43 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe.
| Bib | Name | Country | Chances of various positions | Winning chance | Chance for a medal | Projected seconds behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | BOE Johannes Thingnes |
|
30% | 55% | 0s | |
| 25 | LAEGREID Sturla Holm |
|
9% | 28% | 17s | |
| 19 | FILLON MAILLET Quentin |
|
8% | 24% | 26s | |
| 53 | DALE Johannes |
|
7% | 21% | 29s | |
| 2 | BOE Tarjei |
|
6% | 18% | 32s | |
| 16 | JACQUELIN Emilien |
|
4% | 15% | 36s | |
| 7 | PEIFFER Arnd |
|
4% | 14% | 36s | |
| 32 | DOLL Benedikt |
|
4% | 14% | 41s | |
| 59 | SAMUELSSON Sebastian |
|
3% | 12% | 41s | |
| 31 | DESTHIEUX Simon |
|
3% | 10% | 43s | |
| 35 | CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad |
|
2% | 8% | 48s | |
| 3 | LOGINOV Alexander |
|
2% | 7% | 49s | |
| 49 | HOFER Lukas |
|
2% | 8% | 50s | |
| 69 | GUIGONNAT Antonin |
|
2% | 6% | 54s | |
| 6 | FAK Jakov |
|
1% | 4% | 54s | |
| 51 | PONSILUOMA Martin |
|
2% | 8% | 56s | |
| 14 | LESSER Erik |
|
1% | 4% | 57s | |
| 42 | LATYPOV Eduard |
|
1% | 5% | 59s | |
| 9 | PIDRUCHNYI Dmytro |
|
1% | 3% | 63s | |
| 29 | RASTORGUJEVS Andrejs |
|
1% | 4% | 64s | |
| 26 | EDER Simon |
|
<1% | 2% | 66s | |
| 46 | NELIN Jesper |
|
1% | 3% | 70s | |
| 4 | ELISEEV Matvey |
|
<1% | 2% | 70s | |
| 39 | WEGER Benjamin |
|
<1% | 2% | 71s | |
| 57 | KRCMAR Michal |
|
<1% | 2% | 72s | |
| 15 | SMOLSKI Anton |
|
<1% | 2% | 74s | |
| 44 | CLAUDE Fabien |
|
1% | 2% | 75s | |
| 89 | HORN Philipp |
|
<1% | 2% | 76s | |
| 82 | KUEHN Johannes |
|
<1% | 2% | 77s | |
| 22 | BOCHARNIKOV Sergey |
|
<1% | 1% | 77s |
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Kontiolahti BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 28.11.2020 women 15km individual race preview
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