Nove Mesto BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 06.03.2021 men 10km Sprint race preview

Based on our simulation model, a Norwegian biathlete, Johannes Thingnes Boe is a clear favourite in today’s men sprint discipline in Nove Mesto. The simulation model predicts him to win a race with a 36 percent chance and a 61 percent chance for any medal. Johannes Thingnes Boe is the main favourite in both, overall and sprint disciplines in our season simulation. Season simulation predicts him to win overall with an 83 percent chance and in the sprint discipline with a 97 percent chance. He managed to win three sprint races in the world cups, earlier this season, one in Kontiolahti and two in Oberhof.

One more Norwegian athlete with good expectations from today’s sprint race is Sturla Holm Lægreid. Our biathlon model predicts him to win a race with a seven percent chance, a 25 percent chance to win any medal and some 23 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe. He managed to win a sprint race in the world cup in Hochfilzen already in the current season.

Johannes Dale, also from Norway, has an eight percent chance to win a race, a 24 percent chance to get any medal, and some 30 seconds behind the winner. He won a sprint race earlier this season in the world cup event in Hochfilzen.

Johannes Thingnes Boe brother, Tarjei Boe, also has good prospects from today’s race. Our simulation model predicts him to win a race with six percent chance, 20 percent chance to climb on the podium and some 34 seconds behind the winner.

The next contender is from France – Quentin Fillon Maillet. According to our simulation model, he has a six percent chance to win a race, 20 percent chance to win any medal and some 35 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe.

His team mate Émilien Jacquelin managed to win bronze medals in the world championship 2021 in Pokljuka, in the sprint discipline. Our simulation model predicts him a winning chance of two percent, nine percent chance to win any medal and some 49 seconds behind the winner.

Arnd Peiffer, a German biathlete, has three percent chance to win today’s sprint race, eleven percent chance to win any medal and some 45 second behind the leader.

One more German, with good expectations from today race is Benedikt Doll. Our model predicts him to win a race with two percent chance, nine percent chance to win any medal and some 53 seconds behind the leader.

Contenders from Sweden, Sebastian Samuelsson and Martin Ponsiluoma have good chances in today’s race. Sebastian Samuelsson has a three percent chance to win the race, 13 percent chance to get any medal and some 45 seconds behind the leader, according to our biathlon model. His teammate Martin Ponsiluoma has four percent chance to win a race, 14 percent chance to get any medal and some 47 seconds behind the leader, based on our biathlon simulation model.

RBU (Russia) biathlete Alexander Loginov, according to our biathlon model has some two percent winning chance, 10 percent chance to win any medal and some 48 seconds behind the leader.

Bib	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Projected seconds behind
12	BOE Johannes Thingnes	36%	61%	0s
31	LAEGREID Sturla Holm	7%	25%	23s
47	DALE Johannes	8%	24%	30s
15	BOE Tarjei	6%	20%	34s
29	FILLON MAILLET Quentin	6%	20%	35s
10	PEIFFER Arnd	3%	11%	45s
25	SAMUELSSON Sebastian	3%	13%	45s
37	CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad	3%	11%	45s
1	PONSILUOMA Martin	4%	14%	47s
3	LOGINOV Alexander	2%	10%	48s
5	JACQUELIN Emilien	2%	9%	49s
7	DOLL Benedikt	2%	9%	53s
19	DESTHIEUX Simon	2%	8%	53s
33	FAK Jakov	1%	5%	57s
49	HOFER Lukas	2%	7%	58s
23	LESSER Erik	1%	5%	60s
70	GUIGONNAT Antonin	1%	4%	66s
42	LATYPOV Eduard	1%	4%	66s
56	CLAUDE Fabien	1%	4%	67s
21	EDER Simon	<1%	2%	69s
92	NAWRATH Philipp	1%	3%	71s
17	ELISEEV Matvey	<1%	2%	72s
27	WEGER Benjamin	<1%	2%	75s
2	NELIN Jesper	1%	3%	75s
26	PIDRUCHNYI Dmytro	<1%	2%	77s
91	KRCMAR Michal	<1%	2%	77s
14	SMOLSKI Anton	<1%	2%	78s
45	RASTORGUJEVS Andrejs	<1%	2%	80s
63	KUEHN Johannes	<1%	2%	82s
52	PRYMA Artem	<1%	1%	84s