June 22, 2021

Nove Mesto BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 06.03.2021 men 10km Sprint race preview

Based on our simulation model, a Norwegian biathlete, Johannes Thingnes Boe is a clear favourite in today’s men sprint discipline in Nove Mesto. The simulation model predicts him to win a race with a 36 percent chance and a 61 percent chance for any medal. Johannes Thingnes Boe is the main favourite in both, overall and sprint disciplines in our season simulation. Season simulation predicts him to win overall with an 83 percent chance and in the sprint discipline with a 97 percent chance. He managed to win three sprint races in the world cups, earlier this season, one in Kontiolahti and two in Oberhof.

One more Norwegian athlete with good expectations from today’s sprint race is Sturla Holm Lægreid. Our biathlon model predicts him to win a race with a seven percent chance, a 25 percent chance to win any medal and some 23 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe. He managed to win a sprint race in the world cup in Hochfilzen already in the current season.

Johannes Dale, also from Norway, has an eight percent chance to win a race, a 24 percent chance to get any medal, and some 30 seconds behind the winner. He won a sprint race earlier this season in the world cup event in Hochfilzen.

Johannes Thingnes Boe brother, Tarjei Boe, also has good prospects from today’s race. Our simulation model predicts him to win a race with six percent chance, 20 percent chance to climb on the podium and some 34 seconds behind the winner.

The next contender is from France – Quentin Fillon Maillet. According to our simulation model, he has a six percent chance to win a race, 20 percent chance to win any medal and some 35 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe.

His team mate Émilien Jacquelin managed to win bronze medals in the world championship 2021 in Pokljuka, in the sprint discipline. Our simulation model predicts him a winning chance of two percent, nine percent chance to win any medal and some 49 seconds behind the winner.

Arnd Peiffer, a German biathlete, has three percent chance to win today’s sprint race, eleven percent chance to win any medal and some 45 second behind the leader.

One more German, with good expectations from today race is Benedikt Doll. Our model predicts him to win a race with two percent chance, nine percent chance to win any medal and some 53 seconds behind the leader.

Contenders from Sweden, Sebastian Samuelsson and Martin Ponsiluoma have good chances in today’s race. Sebastian Samuelsson has a three percent chance to win the race, 13 percent chance to get any medal and some 45 seconds behind the leader, according to our biathlon model. His teammate Martin Ponsiluoma has four percent chance to win a race, 14 percent chance to get any medal and some 47 seconds behind the leader, based on our biathlon simulation model.

RBU (Russia) biathlete Alexander Loginov, according to our biathlon model has some two percent winning chance, 10 percent chance to win any medal and some 48 seconds behind the leader.

Bib Name Country Chances of various positions Winning chance Chance for a medal Projected seconds behind
12 BOE Johannes Thingnes
36% 61% 0s
31 LAEGREID Sturla Holm
7% 25% 23s
47 DALE Johannes
8% 24% 30s
15 BOE Tarjei
6% 20% 34s
29 FILLON MAILLET Quentin
6% 20% 35s
10 PEIFFER Arnd
3% 11% 45s
25 SAMUELSSON Sebastian
3% 13% 45s
37 CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad
3% 11% 45s
1 PONSILUOMA Martin
4% 14% 47s
3 LOGINOV Alexander
2% 10% 48s
5 JACQUELIN Emilien
2% 9% 49s
7 DOLL Benedikt
2% 9% 53s
19 DESTHIEUX Simon
2% 8% 53s
33 FAK Jakov
1% 5% 57s
49 HOFER Lukas
2% 7% 58s
23 LESSER Erik
1% 5% 60s
70 GUIGONNAT Antonin
1% 4% 66s
42 LATYPOV Eduard
1% 4% 66s
56 CLAUDE Fabien
1% 4% 67s
21 EDER Simon
<1% 2% 69s
92 NAWRATH Philipp
1% 3% 71s
17 ELISEEV Matvey
<1% 2% 72s
27 WEGER Benjamin
<1% 2% 75s
2 NELIN Jesper
1% 3% 75s
26 PIDRUCHNYI Dmytro
<1% 2% 77s
91 KRCMAR Michal
<1% 2% 77s
14 SMOLSKI Anton
<1% 2% 78s
45 RASTORGUJEVS Andrejs
<1% 2% 80s
63 KUEHN Johannes
<1% 2% 82s
52 PRYMA Artem
<1% 1% 84s

Admin

Admin

Sportindepth has an ambition to dive deeper into the world of sports and hopes to provide in-depth content for Soccer, Athletics and various Winter Sports.

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