Nove Mesto BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 05.03.2021 men 4x7.5km Relay race preview

According to our biathlon model, team Norway is a clear favourite to win in today’s men relay in Nove Mesto. The model predicts Norway a winning chance of 67 percent and 94 percent chance to win any medal.

Team Norway team consist of Sturla Holm Lægreid, Johannes Dale, Tarjei Boe, Johannes Thingnes Boe.

Norwegians won gold medals in the world championship 2021 earlier this year in Pokljuka in the men’s relay discipline. Vetle Sjåstad Christiansen was running instead of Johannes Dale in that race.

Johannes Thingnes Boe and his brother Tarjei Boe are silver medalists in the men’s relay discipline at the 2018 Winter Olympics.

The second team with the best expectations from today’s relay race is the team from France. This team has 16 percent chance to win a race, 69 percent chance to get any medal and they are estimated to finish some 51 seconds behind the Norwegian team, based on our biathlon model.

The French team is represented by Antonin Guigonnat, Quentin Fillon Maillet, Simon Desthieux and Émilien Jacquelin. With the same team, France finished fourth in the world championship 2021. They gave away some 11 seconds to the team from RBU who managed to win bronze medals.

Germany is represented by Erik Lesser, Benedikt Doll, Arnd Peiffer and Philipp Nawrath. Our biathlon model predicts this team a winning chance of eight percent, 51 percent chance to get any medal and some 72 seconds is projected as seconds behind the winner.

The team from Germany is a bronze medalist at 2018 Winter Olympics 2018 in Pyeongchang. At that point, Germans have almost the same team. Simon Schempp (currently retired) was running instead of Philipp Nawrath.

RBU team (Russian Federation) is represented by Said Karimulla Khalili, Matvey Eliseev, Alexander Loginov and Eduard Latypov.

With that team, Russia, managed to won bronze medals in the Pokljuka’s world championship in February 2021.

Our biathlon model predicts RBU team to win a race with 3 percent chance, 31 percent chance to get on the podium and some 89 second behind the winner of the race.

Team Sweden consist of Gabriel Stegmayr, Sebastian Samuelsson, Jesper Nelin and Martin Ponsiluoma. The Swedish team is a Winter Olympics 2018 champion. They managed to win the relay race in the Winter Olympics with almost the same team. The one change is Fredrik Lindström ( currently retired) was running instead of Martin Ponsiluoma.

We see, that our biathlon simulation has an estimation for Sweden to win a race with five percent chance, to win any medal with 38 percent chance and some 90 seconds is projected as finishing time behind the Norwegians.

Our biathlon model predicts Italians to win a race with one percent chance, eight percent chance to win any medal and some 143 seconds finishing time behind the winner.

Team Italy consist of Didier Bionaz, Lukas Hofer, Tommaso Giacomel and Dominik Windisch.

The local team is represented by Michal Krčmář, Ondřej Moravec, Milan Žemlička and Adam Václavík. The Czech team is predicted, by our biathlon model, less than one percent chance to win, one percent chance to get any medal and some 183 seconds behind the winner.

Bib	Country	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Projected seconds behind
1	NORWAY	67%	94%	0s
3	FRANCE	16%	69%	51s
5	GERMANY	8%	51%	72s
4	RUSSIA	3%	31%	89s
2	SWEDEN	5%	38%	90s
6	ITALY	1%	8%	143s
8	AUSTRIA	<1%	3%	152s
7	UKRAINE	<1%	2%	156s
12	SLOVENIA	<1%	2%	170s
9	CZECH REPUBLIC	<1%	1%	183s
14	BELARUS	<1%	1%	196s
13	CANADA	<1%	<1%	216s
16	USA	<1%	<1%	224s
11	SWITZERLAND	<1%	<1%	230s
10	FINLAND	<1%	<1%	283s
17	LITHUANIA	0%	<1%	301s
24	BULGARIA	0%	<1%	334s
15	SLOVAKIA	0%	<1%	334s
22	LATVIA	0%	0%	343s
19	ROMANIA	0%	0%	345s
21	BELGIUM	0%	0%	364s
18	JAPAN	0%	0%	380s
23	POLAND	0%	0%	394s
20	KAZAKHSTAN	0%	0%	426s