March 1, 2021

Pokljuka BMW IBU Biathlon World Championship 21.02.2021 women 12.5km Mass Start race preview

Last day of the BMW IBU Biathlon World Championship and there will be two Mass start races. The 30 strongest men and women will compete for the last sets of medals.

Our biathlon model sees Lisa Theresa Hauser as the main first favourite for the women’s event with 16% to win the race and 39% to win any kind of medal. She is in a great form – got silver in pursuit last week, silver as a part of Austrian team in mixed relay and just missed the podium in individual race (4th place). She performed well in the last year championship as well – was in top10 twice (in mass start and pursuit races).

Second favourite in our biathlon model’s opinion is Norwegian Tiril Eckhoff (13% to win and 32% to get a medal). She had incredible results this season. She already has five medals in this championships – two gold medals in individual disciplines (sprint and pursuit races) and three medals (two golds and one silver) as a part of Norwegian team in relays. Tiril is the bronze medalist in Mass start of the 2018 winter Olympics in Pyeonchang. She is also the largest favourite to win this season’s overall World Cup according to our model prediction.

Third row in the table is taken by Marte Olsbu Roeiseland from Norway with eleven percent chance for gold and 29% chance to win any medal. Even if she did not get any championship medal in individual races (only two golden medals as a part of relay teams), she has a great chance today. We remember her triumph a year ago in Antholz where she got medals in every race she started – seven medals in total (five golden and 2 bronze) in both individual and relay races.

The next one is Sweden’s Hanna Oeberg. Her chance to win today is about ten percent and chance to get any medal is 29 percent. She already climbed the podium three times in Pokljuka this year – second place in Individual race and bronze medals in mixed and single mixed relays.

Franziska Preuss from Germany. Eleven percent to win the race, 30% chance for a medal. Once on podium in Pokljuka, twice on podium in Antholz a year ago. All the medals are silver and all of them as a part of German relay teams.

Dorothea Wierer is in the next row of our predictions table. Our model gives her six percent chance to win the race and 20 percent chance for any medal. Last chance for her to grab some trophy today, best result in Pokljuka is 4th place in pursuit race. Last year in Antholz she got two golden and one silver medals, also one silver medal in mixed relay.

Next two rows are occupied by French athletes – Anais Chevalier-Bouchet and Julia Simon with similar chances today. Anais already earned silver medal in sprint and bronze in pursuit race, while Julia had a golden medal in single mixed relay. However, considering how tired Anais has looked in the last few races I suspect that maybe the model overestimates her chances as her form seems to be regressing.

Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold is the next – three percent chance for a victory and 12% chance for a medal. That can be her third championship medal this year, her trophies are bronze in Individual race and gold in women relay.

Bib Name Country Chances of various positions Winning chance Chance for a medal Projected seconds behind
4 HAUSER Lisa Theresa
16% 39% 0s
13% 32% 10s
8 ROEISELAND Marte Olsbu
11% 29% 11s
5 OEBERG Hanna
10% 29% 12s
10 PREUSS Franziska
11% 30% 13s
9 WIERER Dorothea
6% 20% 25s
5% 17% 33s
14 SIMON Julia
6% 18% 33s
7 TANDREVOLD Ingrid Landmark
3% 12% 42s
2% 9% 49s
11 OEBERG Elvira
2% 9% 50s
2 DAVIDOVA Marketa
2% 8% 56s
1% 6% 58s
13 HERRMANN Denise
2% 7% 63s
1% 4% 72s
20 HINZ Vanessa
1% 4% 74s
24 BLASHKO Darya
<1% 2% 77s
26 MIRONOVA Svetlana
1% 3% 82s
22 HOJNISZ Monika
1% 2% 83s
16 BRAISAZ Justine
1% 4% 83s
6 SOLA Hanna
1% 4% 84s
<1% 2% 87s
18 GASPARIN Selina
1% 2% 92s
19 LIEN Ida
<1% 2% 92s
29 BENDIKA Baiba
<1% 2% 93s
17 HAECKI Lena
<1% 2% 96s
28 LUNDER Emma
<1% 1% 104s
<1% 1% 116s
<1% <1% 118s
30 DUNKLEE Susan
<1% <1% 161s


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