March 1, 2021

Pokljuka BMW IBU Biathlon World Championship 21.02.2021 men 15km Mass Start race preview

Here is our model predictions for the very last race in Pokljuka 2021 BMW IBU Biathlon World Championship – men 15km Mass start.

As usually during this season main favourite to win the race is 2021 world cup leader Johannes Thingnes Boe. His chance to win the race today is 26% and chance to get any medal is 52%. That could be his fifth medal in Pokljuka. He already has bronze for pursuit race and three medals in relays – two golden and one silver. He was much more successful a year ago in Antholz – 3 golden and 3 silver medals for his efforts (3 individual and 3 as a part of Norwegian team).

Another Norwegian Sturla Holm Laegreid is in the next row with ten percent chance to win and 31% chance to climb the podium. He had a great championship already – golden medal in individual start and two golden medals as a part of the Norwegian team in men’s and mixed relays.

Next two rows in our table belongs to French biathletes: Quentin FIllon Maillet (13 percent chance to win and 33% chance for a medal) and Emilien Jacquelin (seven percent chance for a golden medal and 23% chance for the podium). Quentin will try to improve his results – he was close to podium in every race during championships (4th in pursuit and individual races, 6th in sprint, 4th place in men’s relay and fifth place in mixed relay. A year ago in Antholz he performed much better: second places in sprint and mass start races and golden medal in men’s relay. Emilien Jacquelin performed rather well in Pokljuka this year (bronze in sprint and gold in pursuit).

Next guy to talk about is another Norwegian Johannes Dale. His chance to win today is seven percent and 22% to be on podium. He already has won a trophy in Pokljuka – bronze medal in individual race and was 4th in sprint.

His teammate Tarjei Boe is in the next row of our table and his chance to win the race today is six percent with 18% chance to get any kind of medals. He did not show anything spectacular in Pokljuka yet with one exception – golden medal in men’s relay as a part of the team Norway.

German Arnd Peiffer has four percent chance to win golden medal and fifteen percent for a podium, he finished second in individual race in Pokljuka.

Vetle Sjastaad Christiansen has 4% chance to win and 15% for any medal according to our model. Today will be his second start in Pokljuka, he only participated in men’s relay and took the first place in that race.

First Swedish athlete in the table is Sebastian Samuelsson with three percent chance for the golden medal and 13% chance for the top3. If he gets a medal that will be his fifth medal in Pokljuka – silver in pursuit and three medals in different kinds of relays (silver in men’s relay, bronze in mixed and bronze in single mixed relay).

Bib Name Country Chances of various positions Winning chance Chance for a medal Projected seconds behind
7 BOE Johannes Thingnes
26% 52% 0s
3 LAEGREID Sturla Holm
10% 31% 16s
13% 33% 25s
7% 23% 37s
8 DALE Johannes
7% 22% 39s
10 BOE Tarjei
6% 18% 49s
4% 15% 50s
15 CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad
4% 15% 50s
5 SAMUELSSON Sebastian
3% 13% 54s
3% 10% 61s
13 DOLL Benedikt
3% 11% 63s
3% 11% 64s
23 LOGINOV Alexander
2% 9% 64s
14 EDER Simon
1% 6% 71s
11 HOFER Lukas
2% 7% 76s
24 GUIGONNAT Antonin
1% 6% 79s
12 FAK Jakov
1% 5% 80s
18 LATYPOV Eduard
1% 4% 87s
20 KRCMAR Michal
<1% 2% 100s
16 PRYMA Artem
<1% 2% 103s
30 NELIN Jesper
<1% 2% 111s
25 ELISEEV Matvey
<1% 1% 111s
<1% 1% 113s
27 KHALILI Said Karimulla
<1% <1% 126s
29 GOW Christian
<1% <1% 128s
<1% <1% 135s
21 CLAUDE Florent
<1% <1% 144s
22 DOVZAN Miha
<1% <1% 148s
26 FEMLING Peppe
<1% <1% 168s
19 BROWN Jake
<1% <1% 172s



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