Pokljuka BMW IBU Biathlon World Championship 20.02.2021 women 4x6km Relay race preview

Team Norway, represented by Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold, Tiril Eckhoff, Ida Lien and Marte Olsbu Røiseland is the favourite in today’s women relay race according to our biathlon model. They have 35 percent winning chance and 67 percent chance to get a medal.

The Norwegian team is the defending world champion in the women’s relay discipline. Last year, they won gold in Antholz, but with almost the same team. Synnøve Solemdal, currently retired, was participating instead of Ida Lien, who replaces her in the current team.

The second-best team according to our simulation is from Sweden. This team’s participants are Johanna Skottheim, Linn Persson, Elvira Oeberg and Hanna Oeberg. According to our biathlon model, Swedes have 16 percent chance to win the race, 49 percent chance to get any medal and they are projected to finish some 16 seconds behind the Norwegian team.

In 2018 team Sweden won silver medals at Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang. Half of the Olympic team, Linn Persson and Hanna Oeberg, is participating in today’s race.

Linn Persson and Hanna Oeberg already have relay experience in Pokljuka as they managed to win bronze medals together with their teammates Sebastian Samuelsson and Martin Ponsiluoma, in the mixed relay. Also, Hanna Oeberg managed to win bronze medals in a single mixed relay together with Sebastian Samuelsson.

The French team has same sixteen percent chance to win the race according to the biathlon simulation as their opponents from Sweden, but the French team has 47 percent chance to climb on the podium and are on average 21 seconds behind the Norwegians.

Team France consists of Anais Bescond, Anais Chevalier, Chloé Chevalier and Julia Simon.

Anais Chevalier and Anais Bescond are bronze medalist from the 2018 Winter Olympics women’s relay discipline.

Julia Simon together with her teammate Antonin Guigonnat won gold medals in single mixed relay earlier this week.

In the world championship 2020 in Antholz, team Germany managed to win silver medals and in today’s discipline, they have very good expectation, according to the model. Winning chance is 14 percent, getting any medal is 45 percent and they are on average finishing some twenty two seconds behind the winner.

German team consist of Vanessa Hinz, Janina Hettich, Denise Herrmann, Franziska Preuss. In Antholz, they have one different member – Karolin Horchler, was running instead of Janina Hettich.

The next team with some good prospects of today’s race is team Austria. Our simulation model predicts them a winning chance of seven percent and 26 percent chance to get any medal and to finish on average some 51 seconds behind the Norwegians.

RBU (Russia) team is represented by Evgeniya Pavlova, Tatiana Akimova, Svetlana Mironova and Uliana Kaisheva. Our biathlon model predicts them a winning chance of three percent, 15 percent chance to win any medal and some 61 seconds behind the Norwegian team.

2018 Winter Olympic champions in relay discipline – Belarus, according to our model, has three percent chance to win a race, 17 percent chance to get any medal and some 67 seconds behind the team Norway.

Belarus team is represented by Iryna Kryuko, Dzinara Alimbekava, Hanna Sola and Elena Kruchinkina.

Bib	Country	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Projected seconds behind
5	NORWAY	35%	67%	0s
3	SWEDEN	16%	49%	16s
2	FRANCE	16%	47%	21s
1	GERMANY	14%	45%	22s
9	AUSTRIA	7%	26%	51s
4	RUSSIA	3%	15%	61s
8	UKRAINE	3%	14%	65s
6	BELARUS	3%	17%	67s
7	ITALY	1%	9%	84s
11	SWITZERLAND	1%	8%	85s
10	CZECH REPUBLIC	<1%	2%	132s
14	POLAND	<1%	<1%	144s
12	USA	<1%	<1%	170s
13	CANADA	<1%	<1%	178s
16	ESTONIA	0%	<1%	216s
15	FINLAND	0%	<1%	254s
19	SLOVAKIA	0%	<1%	261s
18	JAPAN	0%	0%	290s
17	KAZAKHSTAN	0%	0%	293s
21	BULGARIA	0%	0%	307s
22	SLOVENIA	0%	0%	325s
20	KOREA	0%	0%	329s
23	LATVIA	0%	0%	367s