Pokljuka BMW IBU Biathlon World Championship 20.02.2021 men 4x7.5km Relay race preview

Based on our biathlon model, team Norway is a clear favourite to win in today’s men relay in Pokljuka. The model predicts Norway a winning chance of 61 percent and 95 percent chance to win any medal.

Norwegian team consist of Sturla Holm Lægreid, Tarjei Boe, Johannes Thingnes Boe and Vetle Sjastad Christiansen.

Sturla Holm Lægreid has already won gold medals in two disciplines in the world championship 2021 in Pokljuka. He won gold medals in individual discipline and mixed relay race together with Johannes Thingnes Boe, Tiril Eckhoff and Marte Olsbu Røiseland.

Tarjei Boe and Johannes Thingnes Boe are silver medalists in the men’s relay races at the 2018 Winter Olympics. Together with Vetle Sjastad Christiansen they also were silver medalists at the world championship in Antholz 2020 in the relay discipline.

Johannes Thingnes Boe was second-best together with his teammate Tiril Eckhoff in the recent single mixed relay earlier at the event. Also, he managed to get the bronze medal in the pursuit discipline, here in Pokljuka.

The second team with the best expectations from today race is team from France. This team has 30 percent chance to win a race, 85 percent chance to get any medal and they are projected to finish some 27 seconds behind the Norwegian team, according to our biathlon simulation.

The team from France is represented by Antonin Guigonnat, Quentin Fillon Maillet, Simon Desthieux and Émilien Jacquelin.

The French team is defending the title they won at the world championship 2020 in Antholz in the relay discipline. At that point in time, the team consisted of Émilien Jacquelin, Martin Fourcade, Simon Desthieux and Quentin Fillon Maillet.

Émilien Jacquelin had good results in this event in Pokljuka. He already has won gold in the pursuit discipline and also bronze medal in the sprint discipline.

Simon Desthieux had a good run in sprint discipline earlier in Pokljuka’s world championship and he managed to won silver medal there.

The German team is represented by Erik Lesser, Roman Rees, Arnd Peiffer, Benedikt Doll. Our biathlon model predicts this team a winning chance of five percent, 47 percent chance to get any medal and some 73 seconds is projected as seconds behind the winner.

Germans are bronze medalists in both Winter Olympics 2018 and world championship 2020 in Antholz.

Arnd Peiffer has won silver medal earlier in Pokljuka in the individual race. He finished some seventeen seconds behind Sturla Holm Lægreid.

The next team with some good prospects of today’s race is team Sweden. Our model estimates them a winning chance of two percent, 27 percent chance to win any medal and some 98 seconds behind the Norwegian team.

Team Sweden consist of Peppe Femling, Jesper Nelin, Martin Ponsiluoma and Sebastian Samuelsson.

Their team is a Winter Olympics 2018 champion. They managed to win relay discipline in Winter Olympics with almost the same team. The one change is Fredrik Lindström (retired) is exchanged with Martin Ponsiluoma.

Martin Ponsiluoma is a winner of the sprint race, in the world championship in Pokljuka and also together with Sebastian Samuelsson they won bronze medals in mixed relay race together with their teammates: Linn Persson and Hanna Oeberg.

Sebastian Samuelsson has finished second in the pursuit discipline in Pokljuka and also got bronze medals in the single mixed relay, together with Hanna Oeberg.

Teams from other countries have one or less percent chance to win today’s race.

Bib	Country	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Projected seconds behind
1	NORWAY	61%	95%	0s
2	FRANCE	30%	85%	27s
3	GERMANY	5%	47%	73s
4	RUSSIA	1%	22%	95s
5	SWEDEN	2%	27%	98s
7	AUSTRIA	<1%	8%	126s
6	ITALY	1%	10%	130s
8	UKRAINE	<1%	3%	144s
10	SWITZERLAND	<1%	2%	162s
13	SLOVENIA	<1%	<1%	196s
14	BELARUS	<1%	<1%	205s
9	FINLAND	<1%	<1%	212s
12	CANADA	<1%	<1%	218s
16	USA	<1%	<1%	228s
11	CZECH REPUBLIC	<1%	<1%	229s
25	BULGARIA	0%	<1%	296s
18	LITHUANIA	0%	<1%	303s
15	SLOVAKIA	0%	<1%	327s
23	LATVIA	0%	<1%	328s
24	ROMANIA	0%	0%	348s
21	BELGIUM	0%	0%	348s
19	JAPAN	0%	0%	369s
17	ESTONIA	0%	0%	383s
22	POLAND	0%	0%	395s
20	KAZAKHSTAN	0%	0%	422s
27	MOLDOVA	0%	0%	427s
26	KOREA	0%	0%	609s