Pokljuka BMW IBU Biathlon World Championship 16.02.2021 women 15km Individual race preview

Our biathlon model’s simulation of the 15km women’s individual race of the IBU World Championship 2021 in Pokljuka predicts Lisa Theresa Hauser as the main favourite with a 13 percent chance to win and a chance of about 31 percent to get a medal.

The German biathlete Franziska Preuss has approximately ten percent chance to win the race and 26 percent chance of making the podium, according to our model.

Last year’s bronze medalist in the individual discipline, Marte Olsbu Røiseland is predicted to have about nine percent chance of winning the race and 23 percent chance to win a medal.

In the 1 000 000 simulations we made of this race, Hanna Öberg, the current Winter Olympic champion in the individual discipline as well as the world champion from Oestersund 2019, wins about seven percent of the time and climbs on the podium some 18 percent of the time. Elvira Öberg also has some good perspectives in this race, with three percent chance to win and ten percent chance to get a medal.

The French biathlete, Anais Chevalier has very similar chances to win as her opponent from Sweden, Hanna Öberg. Anais has around seven percent chance to win and nineteen percent chance to get a medal. She already managed to win the Silver medal in Sprint race and the Bronze medal in Pursuit discipline, in Pokljuka’s World Championship. Another French athlete, Julia Simon is predicted to win about four percent of the time and she has approximately an eleven percent chance to get a medal according to our model.

The current world champion in the individual discipline, Dorothea Wierer is predicted to have about a six percent chance to defend her title and a seventeen percent chance to get a medal, according to our model.

Dorothea Wierer is also the favourite to win the 2020-21 Individual discipline world cup race in our season simulation. She is a clear favourite there and has about 62 percent chance to win this smaller crystal globe.

Tiril Eckhoff who has performed supremely well and won three gold medals from her first three starts at Pokljuka 2021, the Mixed relay, Sprint and Pursuit events, and is predicted to have about a six percent chance to win and a 19 percent chance to get any medal today. Her team mate and podcast partner, Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold has some three percent chance to win today’s Individual race in Pokljuka and give or take a ten percent chance to get any medal.

The Belarus athlete Dzinara Alimbekava is estimated to win the race about three percent of the time and to get on the podium nine percent of the time.

Marketa Davidova from The Czech Republic is also worth mentioning – she has two percent chance to win and six percent chance to get a medal.

Julija Dzhima, a 30 year old Ukranian who has performed okay so far in Pokljuka and is often good at the Individual event, is predicted to have about a two percent chance to win the gold and six percent chance to win any medal.

Bib	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Projected seconds behind
25	HAUSER Lisa Theresa	13%	31%	0s
12	PREUSS Franziska	10%	26%	15s
36	ROEISELAND Marte Olsbu	9%	23%	30s
22	OEBERG Hanna	7%	18%	43s
5	CHEVALIER Anais	7%	19%	43s
10	WIERER Dorothea	6%	17%	43s
45	ECKHOFF Tiril	8%	19%	47s
7	PERSSON Linn	2%	9%	82s
3	ZDOUC Dunja	2%	7%	82s
27	OEBERG Elvira	3%	10%	83s
14	ALIMBEKAVA Dzinara	3%	9%	85s
56	TANDREVOLD Ingrid Landmark	3%	10%	88s
18	SIMON Julia	4%	11%	93s
64	DZHYMA Juliya	2%	6%	93s
29	HINZ Vanessa	2%	6%	98s
1	VITTOZZI Lisa	1%	5%	110s
11	HOJNISZ Monika	1%	5%	115s
33	HERRMANN Denise	2%	7%	116s
2	PIDHRUSHNA Olena	1%	3%	120s
73	KUKLINA Larisa	1%	3%	121s
39	DAVIDOVA Marketa	2%	6%	124s
20	KAISHEVA Uliana	1%	3%	131s
48	AKIMOVA Tatiana	1%	3%	132s
59	BESCOND Anais	1%	4%	132s
50	SKOTTHEIM Johanna	<1%	2%	136s
16	BRAISAZ Justine	1%	4%	145s
93	MIRONOVA Svetlana	1%	3%	161s
17	BENDIKA Baiba	1%	2%	167s
67	GASPARIN Selina	<1%	2%	188s
4	SOLA Hanna	<1%	2%	206s