October 22, 2021

Pokljuka BMW IBU Biathlon World Championship 14.02.2021 women 10km Pursuit race preview

Here is our model prediction for women’s pursuit race of  of the IBU World Championship 2021 in Pokljuka.

We can see that Tiril Eckhoff, who will be starting first has 26 percent chance to win and more than fifty percent to get any medal.

Second favourite starting twelfth seconds behind Eckhoff is French Anais Chevalier-Bouchet with nineteen percent chance to win and 47 percent to stand on podium today.

Next three athletes have similar 11-13 percent to win pursuit today: Norwegian Marte Olsbu Roeiseland (last World Championship’s bronze medalist), who is also our’s model favourite in the overall season simulation, as well as in the season pursuit discipline simulation with thirteen percent to win and 39 percent to be on podium, Austrian Lisa Theresa Hauser with exactly the same chances to win and to get any medal and German Franziska Preuss with eleven percent chance to win and 35 percent to be in top three today.

Another German – Denise Herrmann, who was second in the same race a year ago is just following the leaders (five percent to win and 19 percent for a medal).

Last year’s champion – Dorothea Wierer from Italy will start 82 seconds behind the leader today, her chances to repeat her success is only about one percent with seven percent chance to get any medal.

Lisa Vitozzi will starts in fifth position 38 seconds after Tiril Eckhoff and will win the race in two percent of cases according to our model.

Not so far from the top group we can also see three Swedish athletes – Hanna Oeberg (five percent to win), Linn Persson and Elvira Oeberg both with less than one percent chance to win but about three percent to get a medal.

Hanna Sola from Belarus is also worth mentioning – she has two percent chance to win and ten percent chance to get a medal.

Bib Gap Name Country Chances of various positions Winning chance Chance for a medal Projected seconds behind
1 0 ECKHOFF Tiril
26% 53% 0s
2 12 CHEVALIER Anais
19% 47% 14s
6 44 ROEISELAND Marte Olsbu
13% 39% 33s
9 51 HAUSER Lisa Theresa
13% 39% 38s
8 50 PREUSS Franziska
11% 35% 41s
4 22 HERRMANN Denise
5% 19% 58s
10 59 OEBERG Hanna
5% 22% 59s
5 38 VITTOZZI Lisa
2% 10% 76s
3 14 SOLA Hanna
2% 10% 83s
20 82 WIERER Dorothea
1% 7% 96s
16 74 PERSSON Linn
<1% 3% 107s
22 86 OEBERG Elvira
<1% 3% 114s
14 72 BLASHKO Darya
<1% 1% 115s
12 69 HINZ Vanessa
<1% 2% 119s
21 83 TANDREVOLD Ingrid Landmark
<1% 2% 121s
7 50 HAECKI Lena
<1% 2% 126s
28 108 SIMON Julia
<1% 2% 130s
11 65 PIDHRUSHNA Olena
<1% 1% 131s
25 93 BRAISAZ Justine
<1% 1% 152s
15 73 GASPARIN Selina
<1% 1% 153s
17 77 LIEN Ida
<1% <1% 157s
26 98 BENDIKA Baiba
<1% <1% 160s
13 71 FIALKOVA Paulina
<1% <1% 161s
40 127 ALIMBEKAVA Dzinara
<1% <1% 163s
37 118 DZHYMA Juliya
<1% <1% 167s
19 80 KAZAKEVICH Irina
<1% <1% 171s
38 119 ZDOUC Dunja
<1% <1% 171s
30 110 HOJNISZ Monika
<1% <1% 173s
31 112 HETTICH Janina
<1% <1% 174s
34 114 BESCOND Anais
<1% <1% 179s

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Sportindepth has an ambition to dive deeper into the world of sports and hopes to provide in-depth content for Soccer, Athletics and various Winter Sports.

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