Pokljuka BMW IBU Biathlon World Championship 14.02.2021 women 10km Pursuit race preview

Here is our model prediction for women’s pursuit race of of the IBU World Championship 2021 in Pokljuka.

We can see that Tiril Eckhoff, who will be starting first has 26 percent chance to win and more than fifty percent to get any medal.

Second favourite starting twelfth seconds behind Eckhoff is French Anais Chevalier-Bouchet with nineteen percent chance to win and 47 percent to stand on podium today.

Next three athletes have similar 11-13 percent to win pursuit today: Norwegian Marte Olsbu Roeiseland (last World Championship’s bronze medalist), who is also our’s model favourite in the overall season simulation, as well as in the season pursuit discipline simulation with thirteen percent to win and 39 percent to be on podium, Austrian Lisa Theresa Hauser with exactly the same chances to win and to get any medal and German Franziska Preuss with eleven percent chance to win and 35 percent to be in top three today.

Another German – Denise Herrmann, who was second in the same race a year ago is just following the leaders (five percent to win and 19 percent for a medal).

Last year’s champion – Dorothea Wierer from Italy will start 82 seconds behind the leader today, her chances to repeat her success is only about one percent with seven percent chance to get any medal.

Lisa Vitozzi will starts in fifth position 38 seconds after Tiril Eckhoff and will win the race in two percent of cases according to our model.

Not so far from the top group we can also see three Swedish athletes – Hanna Oeberg (five percent to win), Linn Persson and Elvira Oeberg both with less than one percent chance to win but about three percent to get a medal.

Hanna Sola from Belarus is also worth mentioning – she has two percent chance to win and ten percent chance to get a medal.

Bib	Gap	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Projected seconds behind
1	0	ECKHOFF Tiril	26%	53%	0s
2	12	CHEVALIER Anais	19%	47%	14s
6	44	ROEISELAND Marte Olsbu	13%	39%	33s
9	51	HAUSER Lisa Theresa	13%	39%	38s
8	50	PREUSS Franziska	11%	35%	41s
4	22	HERRMANN Denise	5%	19%	58s
10	59	OEBERG Hanna	5%	22%	59s
5	38	VITTOZZI Lisa	2%	10%	76s
3	14	SOLA Hanna	2%	10%	83s
20	82	WIERER Dorothea	1%	7%	96s
16	74	PERSSON Linn	<1%	3%	107s
22	86	OEBERG Elvira	<1%	3%	114s
14	72	BLASHKO Darya	<1%	1%	115s
12	69	HINZ Vanessa	<1%	2%	119s
21	83	TANDREVOLD Ingrid Landmark	<1%	2%	121s
7	50	HAECKI Lena	<1%	2%	126s
28	108	SIMON Julia	<1%	2%	130s
11	65	PIDHRUSHNA Olena	<1%	1%	131s
25	93	BRAISAZ Justine	<1%	1%	152s
15	73	GASPARIN Selina	<1%	1%	153s
17	77	LIEN Ida	<1%	<1%	157s
26	98	BENDIKA Baiba	<1%	<1%	160s
13	71	FIALKOVA Paulina	<1%	<1%	161s
40	127	ALIMBEKAVA Dzinara	<1%	<1%	163s
37	118	DZHYMA Juliya	<1%	<1%	167s
19	80	KAZAKEVICH Irina	<1%	<1%	171s
38	119	ZDOUC Dunja	<1%	<1%	171s
30	110	HOJNISZ Monika	<1%	<1%	173s
31	112	HETTICH Janina	<1%	<1%	174s
34	114	BESCOND Anais	<1%	<1%	179s