December 1, 2021

Pokljuka BMW IBU Biathlon World Championship 14.02.2021 men 12.5km Pursuit race preview

Our model simulation for today’s men’s pursuit race of the IBU World Championship 2021 in Pokljuka predicts Johannes Thingnes Boe as the main favourite with 29 percent chance to win even if he starts eleven seconds behind the winner of yesterday’s sprint, Martin Ponsilouma.

Johannes Thingnes Boe is also the favourite to win both the 2020-21 overall biathlon world cup as well as the smaller globe for the pursuit cup in our season simulation.

We expect to see tight competition for the podium today. Apart from the main favourite we can see at least six biathletes with seven to 13 percent chances to win championship’s pursuit gold medal:

Emilien Jacquelin who will start 13 seconds behind the leader has about 13 percent chance for gold and 36 percent for any medal today.

Another Frenchman Quentin Fillon Maillet has a decent chance of eleven percent to win the race and 34 percent for a podium.

Then we have three Norwegian athletes: Sturla Holm Laegreid with ten percent chance to win and 34 percent chance for a medal, Tarjej Boe with similar ten percent chance to win and 31 percent chance to get any medal and Johannes Dale with about seven percent chance to win (25 percent to climb the podium today).

The winner of sprint race on Friday, Martin Ponsiluoma, has seven percent chance to make another gold today and 22 percent to get another medal. Another Swede – Sebastian Samuelsson – will fight for podium as well (his chance for a medal is 17 percent and four percent to win the race).

RBU (Russian) representatives – Eduard Latypov and Alexander Loginov only have three to four percent chances to win medals today.

Austrian Simon Eder will start 56 seconds behind Ponsilouma and his chance to stand on podium is about two percent today.

Italian Lukas Hofer has less than a percent chance to win and about four percent for a podium.

The German team has a combined chance of getting a medal of less than one percent after their poor performance in Friday’s sprint race.

Slovenian Jakov Fak racing on home ground but he almost does not have chances for a medal as he is starting 97 seconds after the leader.

Bib Gap Name Country Chances of various positions Winning chance Chance for a medal Projected seconds behind
5 23 BOE Johannes Thingnes
29% 58% 0s
7 26 LAEGREID Sturla Holm
10% 34% 18s
3 13 JACQUELIN Emilien
13% 36% 21s
6 24 FILLON MAILLET Quentin
11% 34% 29s
1 0 PONSILUOMA Martin
7% 22% 31s
4 22 DALE Johannes
7% 25% 33s
9 28 BOE Tarjei
10% 31% 36s
2 11 DESTHIEUX Simon
5% 18% 43s
8 27 SAMUELSSON Sebastian
4% 17% 54s
10 33 LATYPOV Eduard
1% 4% 91s
16 56 EDER Simon
<1% 2% 95s
14 49 GUIGONNAT Antonin
1% 3% 95s
26 75 LOGINOV Alexander
<1% 3% 98s
11 38 KRCMAR Michal
<1% 2% 98s
13 48 HOFER Lukas
1% 4% 103s
23 65 PIDRUCHNYI Dmytro
<1% 2% 117s
19 62 ELISEEV Matvey
<1% 1% 123s
17 58 GOW Christian
<1% 1% 127s
18 60 NELIN Jesper
<1% 1% 128s
15 54 RASTORGUJEVS Andrejs
<1% 1% 131s
36 97 PEIFFER Arnd
<1% <1% 132s
20 62 PRYMA Artem
<1% <1% 135s
35 97 FAK Jakov
<1% <1% 140s
39 104 DOLL Benedikt
<1% <1% 141s
21 63 BIONAZ Didier
<1% <1% 162s
32 87 BOCHARNIKOV Sergey
<1% <1% 165s
33 95 SMOLSKI Anton
<1% <1% 165s
28 79 SEPPALA Tero
<1% <1% 169s
27 78 BORMOLINI Thomas
<1% <1% 171s
12 45 BROWN Jake
<1% <1% 189s

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Sportindepth has an ambition to dive deeper into the world of sports and hopes to provide in-depth content for Soccer, Athletics and various Winter Sports.

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