May 9, 2021

Pokljuka BMW IBU Biathlon World Championship 13.02.2021 women 7.5km Sprint race preview

Last year’s world champion in the sprint discipline, Marte Olsbu Røiseland is predicted as the most likely winner of today’s sprint race in Pokljuka. She is estimated to have 13 percent winning chance and 31 percent chance to win a medal. Marte is also our’s model favourite in the overall season simulation, as well as in the season sprint discipline simulation.

However, our model predicts a tight battle between Marte Olsbu Røiseland and a second contender from Norway – Tiril Eckhoff, she is predicted a winning chance of twelve percent and four seconds behind Marte Olsbu Røiseland.

The Austrian athlete Lisa Theresa Hauser had good runs in sprint races earlier this season, she got two third places in sprint races in Oberhof. Our biathlon simulation predicts that Lisa Theresa Hauser has a seven percent chance to win and in our simulations she has been on average some six seconds behind Marte Olsbu Røiseland.

The sisters from Sweden, Hanna Oeberg and Elvira Oeberg have reasons to have high hopes for today’s race. Our model predicts that Hanna Oeberg has an eight percent chance to win the race and a 22 percent chance to get a medal, Elvira Oeberg is predicted to have a winning chance of three percent and a ten percent chance to get on the podium.

Current Winter Olympics champion in sprint discipline Laura Dahlmeier is retired, so all eyes from the German supporters are going to be on Franziska Preuss. Our biathlon simulation gives her a winning chance of six percent and eighteen percent chance of getting of picking up a medal. She is on average twelve seconds behind the winner in our simulations. Another German athlete, Denise Herrmann, is estimated to have a four percent chance of winning the gold and a 13 percent chance to get a medal.

Dorothea Wierer has about a 15 percent chance of winning and some 15 percent chance of making the podium, according to our model.

Two French athletes, Julia Simon and Anais Chevalier are estimated to have a tight run. Julia Simon is predicted a winning chance of six percent and 16 percent chance to get a medal. Anais Chevalier is predicted to win the race around four percent of the time and to get a medal 13 percent of the time.

Bib Name Country Chances of various positions Winning chance Chance for a medal Projected seconds behind
11 ROEISELAND Marte Olsbu
13% 31% 0s
18 ECKHOFF Tiril
12% 28% 4s
25 HAUSER Lisa Theresa
7% 21% 6s
31 OEBERG Hanna
8% 22% 7s
15 PREUSS Franziska
6% 18% 12s
36 WIERER Dorothea
5% 15% 17s
27 SIMON Julia
6% 16% 20s
4% 13% 22s
4% 13% 25s
9 TANDREVOLD Ingrid Landmark
3% 11% 25s
3% 10% 25s
29 OEBERG Elvira
3% 10% 29s
1 DAVIDOVA Marketa
3% 9% 29s
13 BRAISAZ Justine
3% 10% 30s
1% 6% 32s
28 PAVLOVA Evgeniya
1% 5% 34s
66 BESCOND Anais
1% 4% 40s
1% 4% 42s
43 MIRONOVA Svetlana
1% 5% 43s
39 DZHYMA Juliya
1% 2% 45s
88 KAISHEVA Uliana
1% 2% 47s
1% 3% 51s
77 KRYUKO Iryna
<1% 2% 51s
22 HOJNISZ Monika
1% 2% 51s
24 SOLA Hanna
1% 4% 52s
48 GASPARIN Selina
1% 3% 55s
86 LIEN Ida
<1% 2% 59s
<1% 2% 60s
16 HAECKI Lena
1% 2% 60s
74 INNERHOFER Katharina
<1% 2% 67s



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