April 13, 2021

Pokljuka BMW IBU Biathlon World Championship 12.02.2021 10km Sprint race preview

Today’s sprint race simulation predicts biathletes from Norway as most likely winners of the Sprint race of the IBU World Championship 2021 in Pokljuka.

Johannes Thingnes Boe is unsurprisingly our model’s main favourite for today’s race and he is also the favourite to win both the 2020-21 overall biathlon world cup as well as the smaller globe for the sprint cup in our season simulation.

Sturla Holm Lægreid, Tarjei Boe, Johannes Dale are estimated to have a tight battle. Our model estimates Sturla Holm Laegreid’s winning chances at around six percent, Tarjei Boe’s at some eight percent and Johannes Dale’s at about seven percent.

Quentin Fillon Maillet, the silver medalist in the sprint event during last year’s world championship in Antholz (Italy), is projected to have decent medal chances this year too. Our model indicates about a 17 percent chance for him to get a medal. He is predicted to finish on average some 38 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe.

Another athlete from France, Emilien Jacquelin has an estimated winning chance of four percent and 15 percent chance for picking up a medal.

Arnd Peiffer, the current Winter Olympic champion in the sprint discipline is projected just behind the two Frenchmen, Quentin and Emilien. Peiffer has some two percent chance of winning and ten percent chance to get on the podium. Another German athlete, Benedikt Doll has approximately the same ten percent to get a medal, but his chances of winning are slightly less – three percent.

Last year’s world champion in the sprint discipline, Alexander Loginov is predicted to have about a two percent chance of defending his title and nine percent chance to win a medal.

The Swedes also have solid prospects with Martin Ponsiluoma and Sebastian Samuelsson. Five percent chance to win for Martin and three percent chance to win for Sebastian.

Jakov Fak, is the Slovenian athlete most likely to excite the home fans, even if there will not be any fans in the stands due to the Covid-19 pandemic. He has some one percent chance to win and six percent chance to grab a medal.

Bib Name Country Chances of various positions Winning chance Chance for a medal Projected seconds behind
28 BOE Johannes Thingnes
41% 67% 0s
9 LAEGREID Sturla Holm
6% 23% 28s
13 BOE Tarjei
8% 26% 32s
59 DALE Johannes
7% 24% 33s
5% 17% 38s
33 JACQUELIN Emilien
4% 15% 41s
2% 10% 46s
5% 16% 47s
12 LOGINOV Alexander
2% 9% 52s
26 SAMUELSSON Sebastian
3% 11% 54s
31 DOLL Benedikt
3% 10% 56s
23 FAK Jakov
1% 6% 57s
2% 7% 58s
2 HOFER Lukas
2% 8% 59s
41 LESSER Erik
1% 5% 62s
11 WEGER Benjamin
1% 3% 70s
35 CLAUDE Fabien
1% 4% 70s
89 GUIGONNAT Antonin
1% 3% 70s
20 EDER Simon
<1% 2% 71s
22 NELIN Jesper
1% 3% 73s
4 ELISEEV Matvey
<1% 3% 74s
50 LATYPOV Eduard
1% 3% 76s
<1% 2% 79s
<1% 2% 80s
66 SMOLSKI Anton
<1% 2% 80s
52 KRCMAR Michal
<1% 1% 81s
78 EBERHARD Julian
1% 3% 81s
70 KUEHN Johannes
<1% 2% 83s
<1% 1% 84s
10 WINDISCH Dominik
<1% 1% 89s



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