Pokljuka BMW IBU Biathlon World Championship 10.02.2021 4x7.5km mixed relay race preview

Our Biathlon model predicts Norway as the most likely winner of the opening race of the IBU World Championship 2021 in Pokljuka with some 60 percent chance of winning. The Norwegian team’s chances of picking up a medal are estimated at around 93%.

France is considered the second most likely winner with a 23 percent chance to win, the French team ends up on average 38 seconds behind the Norwegians in our simulations.

Of the other teams, Sweden and Germany are the main contenders. Both are estimated to have some seven to eight percent chance of winning.

Teams from other countries have one percent or less chance of winning in biathlon simulation.

Bib	Country	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Projected seconds behind
2	NORWAY	60%	93%	0s
3	FRANCE	23%	75%	38s
13	SWEDEN	8%	52%	66s
5	GERMANY	7%	47%	72s
1		1%	12%	122s
7	ITALY	<1%	8%	131s
4	BELARUS	<1%	5%	143s
11	AUSTRIA	<1%	3%	150s
10	UKRAINE	<1%	1%	170s
6	SWITZERLAND	<1%	2%	174s
14	CZECH REPUBLIC	<1%	2%	177s
8	FINLAND	<1%	<1%	250s
9	USA	<1%	<1%	267s
15	CANADA	0%	<1%	273s
26	BULGARIA	0%	0%	312s
16	ESTONIA	0%	<1%	319s
12	POLAND	0%	0%	333s
20	SLOVAKIA	0%	<1%	341s
18	JAPAN	0%	0%	348s
22	LITHUANIA	0%	0%	377s
21	KAZAKHSTAN	0%	0%	381s
24	BELGIUM	0%	0%	472s
19	LATVIA	0%	0%	477s
27	KOREA	0%	0%	499s
23	ROMANIA	0%	0%	505s