by Below is our model prediction for women’s relay in Antholz-Anterselva today. As you can see Norway is a main favourite with 26% chance to win, followed by France (17%) and Germany (19%). Next two teams are not so far away – Russia with 11% and Sweden with 14%. Next is Belarus with 5% chance. Each of the the other teams have less than five percent chance to win.
After a change in the Austrian relay team (Lisa Theresa Hauser replaces Julia Schwaiger), this makes the Austrian team substantially stronger and we have redone our simulation.
| Bib | Country | Chances of various positions | Winning chance | Chance for a medal | Projected seconds behind | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | NORWAY |
|
26% | 59% | 0s | |
| 3 | FRANCE |
|
17% | 46% | 2s | |
| 2 | GERMANY |
|
19% | 50% | 20s | |
| 5 | RUSSIA |
|
11% | 35% | 40s | |
| 1 | SWEDEN |
|
14% | 42% | 41s | |
| 6 | BELARUS |
|
5% | 21% | 62s | |
| 8 | AUSTRIA |
|
3% | 15% | 107s | |
| 11 | SWITZERLAND |
|
1% | 8% | 108s | |
| 9 | ITALY |
|
2% | 9% | 110s | |
| 7 | UKRAINE |
|
2% | 11% | 118s | |
| 10 | CZECH REPUBLIC |
|
1% | 4% | 140s | |
| 15 | CANADA |
|
<1% | 1% | 196s | |
| 12 | USA |
|
<1% | 1% | 207s | |
| 16 | ESTONIA |
|
<1% | <1% | 259s | |
| 14 | FINLAND |
|
<1% | <1% | 262s | |
| 13 | POLAND |
|
<1% | <1% | 264s | |
| 20 | KAZAKHSTAN |
|
0% | <1% | 339s | |
| 17 | JAPAN |
|
0% | 0% | 369s | |
| 19 | KOREA |
|
0% | 0% | 490s | |
| 18 | SLOVAKIA |
|
0% | 0% | 527s |
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