May 9, 2021

Antholz-Anterselva BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 24.01.2021 women 4×6km relay race preview

Below is our model prediction for women’s relay in Antholz-Anterselva today. As you can see Norway is a main favourite with 26% chance to win, followed by France (17%) and Germany (19%). Next two teams are not so far away – Russia with 11% and Sweden with 14%. Next is Belarus with 5% chance. Each of the the other teams have less than five percent chance to win.

After a change in the Austrian relay team (Lisa Theresa Hauser replaces Julia Schwaiger), this makes the Austrian team substantially stronger and we have redone our simulation.

Bib Country Chances of various positions Winning chance Chance for a medal Projected seconds behind
4 NORWAY
26% 59% 0s
3 FRANCE
17% 46% 2s
2 GERMANY
19% 50% 20s
5 RUSSIA
11% 35% 40s
1 SWEDEN
14% 42% 41s
6 BELARUS
5% 21% 62s
8 AUSTRIA
3% 15% 107s
11 SWITZERLAND
1% 8% 108s
9 ITALY
2% 9% 110s
7 UKRAINE
2% 11% 118s
10 CZECH REPUBLIC
1% 4% 140s
15 CANADA
<1% 1% 196s
12 USA
<1% 1% 207s
16 ESTONIA
<1% <1% 259s
14 FINLAND
<1% <1% 262s
13 POLAND
<1% <1% 264s
20 KAZAKHSTAN
0% <1% 339s
17 JAPAN
0% 0% 369s
19 KOREA
0% 0% 490s
18 SLOVAKIA
0% 0% 527s

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