Antholz-Anterselva BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 23.01.2021 men 4x7.5km relay race preview

The race simulation of our biathlon model predicts that the Norwegian team is the most likely winner of the men’s relay in Antholz. Our model estimate about a 70 percent chance for Norway winning and 96 percent chance for a top three finish.

The French team is the second most likely winner with give or take a 16 percent chance of winning and approximately 70 percent chance of grabbing a place on the podium.

Germany is estimated to win one out of ten times and the model thinks they will finish on the podium about six times out of ten.

Sweden, Russia and Austria are most likely to do well of the other contenders. These teams have some one to two percent chance of winning and between 16 and 24 percent chance of making the podium.

All of the other teams have less than one percent chance of winning in our model’s simulation.

Bib	Country	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Projected seconds behind
1	NORWAY	70%	96%	0s
4	FRANCE	16%	70%	71s
3	GERMANY	10%	60%	96s
2	SWEDEN	2%	18%	154s
5	RUSSIA	2%	24%	154s
7	AUSTRIA	1%	16%	173s
6	ITALY	<1%	4%	213s
9	UKRAINE	<1%	5%	228s
14	BELARUS	<1%	2%	250s
11	FINLAND	<1%	1%	268s
8	CZECH REPUBLIC	<1%	1%	272s
10	SWITZERLAND	<1%	1%	281s
13	SLOVENIA	<1%	1%	281s
15	USA	<1%	1%	286s
12	CANADA	<1%	<1%	307s
24	ROMANIA	0%	<1%	397s
19	LITHUANIA	0%	<1%	399s
16	SLOVAKIA	0%	<1%	445s
23	LATVIA	0%	<1%	447s
17	ESTONIA	0%	<1%	464s
20	BELGIUM	0%	0%	471s
18	JAPAN	0%	0%	493s
21	POLAND	0%	0%	512s
22	KAZAKHSTAN	0%	0%	579s