April 13, 2021

Antholz-Anterselva BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 22.01.2021 men 20km individual race preview

Norwegian athletes are predicted by our model to dominate in Antholz-Anterselva.

Sportindepth’s biathlon simulation model predicts that the current leader of the overall world cup Johannes Thingnes Boe has about a 20 percent chance of winning today’s race and 40 percent chance of a podium finish.

Sturla Holm Laegreid is our model’s second favourite with some 14 percent chance of winning and a 36 percent chance of finishing among the top three.

Two more Norwegian athletes, Tarjei Boe and Johannes Dale have a tight competition with winning chances of about ten and nine percent and are projected to be some 37ish and 46ish seconds behind our favourite.

The French athlete – Quentin Fillon Maillet is projected to finish some 61 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe, but we won’t be surprised if he outperforms this as he has previously been very good in races at high altitude.

Arnd Peiffer has 66 seconds behind and five percent winning chance in this race.

Bib Name Country Chances of various positions Winning chance Chance for a medal Projected seconds behind
31 BOE Johannes Thingnes
20% 40% 0s
44 LAEGREID Sturla Holm
14% 36% 5s
24 BOE Tarjei
10% 25% 37s
63 DALE Johannes
9% 23% 46s
50 FILLON MAILLET Quentin
6% 18% 61s
37 PEIFFER Arnd
5% 15% 66s
64 CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad
4% 14% 72s
47 JACQUELIN Emilien
5% 15% 76s
51 FAK Jakov
3% 10% 86s
28 SAMUELSSON Sebastian
4% 12% 92s
27 LOGINOV Alexander
3% 10% 98s
45 LESSER Erik
2% 9% 104s
20 EDER Simon
1% 4% 113s
17 DESTHIEUX Simon
2% 7% 117s
19 PONSILUOMA Martin
3% 8% 124s
1 DOLL Benedikt
2% 6% 134s
75 BJOENTEGAARD Erlend
1% 5% 136s
42 HOFER Lukas
1% 5% 140s
46 WEGER Benjamin
1% 4% 140s
59 GUIGONNAT Antonin
1% 4% 144s
8 MORAVEC Ondrej
<1% 2% 161s
38 SMOLSKI Anton
<1% 2% 173s
32 PIDRUCHNYI Dmytro
<1% 2% 176s
34 CLAUDE Fabien
1% 3% 180s
13 NELIN Jesper
1% 3% 181s
41 BOCHARNIKOV Sergey
<1% 2% 183s
23 LATYPOV Eduard
<1% 2% 189s
25 RASTORGUJEVS Andrejs
<1% 2% 199s
26 HORN Philipp
<1% 1% 217s
14 EBERHARD Julian
<1% 1% 224s

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Sportindepth has an ambition to dive deeper into the world of sports and hopes to provide in-depth content for Soccer, Athletics and various Winter Sports.

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