Antholz-Anterselva BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 22.01.2021 men 20km individual race preview

Norwegian athletes are predicted by our model to dominate in Antholz-Anterselva.

Sportindepth’s biathlon simulation model predicts that the current leader of the overall world cup Johannes Thingnes Boe has about a 20 percent chance of winning today’s race and 40 percent chance of a podium finish.

Sturla Holm Laegreid is our model’s second favourite with some 14 percent chance of winning and a 36 percent chance of finishing among the top three.

Two more Norwegian athletes, Tarjei Boe and Johannes Dale have a tight competition with winning chances of about ten and nine percent and are projected to be some 37ish and 46ish seconds behind our favourite.

The French athlete – Quentin Fillon Maillet is projected to finish some 61 seconds behind Johannes Thingnes Boe, but we won’t be surprised if he outperforms this as he has previously been very good in races at high altitude.

Arnd Peiffer has 66 seconds behind and five percent winning chance in this race.

Bib	Name	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Projected seconds behind
31	BOE Johannes Thingnes	20%	40%	0s
44	LAEGREID Sturla Holm	14%	36%	5s
24	BOE Tarjei	10%	25%	37s
63	DALE Johannes	9%	23%	46s
50	FILLON MAILLET Quentin	6%	18%	61s
37	PEIFFER Arnd	5%	15%	66s
64	CHRISTIANSEN Vetle Sjaastad	4%	14%	72s
47	JACQUELIN Emilien	5%	15%	76s
51	FAK Jakov	3%	10%	86s
28	SAMUELSSON Sebastian	4%	12%	92s
27	LOGINOV Alexander	3%	10%	98s
45	LESSER Erik	2%	9%	104s
20	EDER Simon	1%	4%	113s
17	DESTHIEUX Simon	2%	7%	117s
19	PONSILUOMA Martin	3%	8%	124s
1	DOLL Benedikt	2%	6%	134s
75	BJOENTEGAARD Erlend	1%	5%	136s
42	HOFER Lukas	1%	5%	140s
46	WEGER Benjamin	1%	4%	140s
59	GUIGONNAT Antonin	1%	4%	144s
8	MORAVEC Ondrej	<1%	2%	161s
38	SMOLSKI Anton	<1%	2%	173s
32	PIDRUCHNYI Dmytro	<1%	2%	176s
34	CLAUDE Fabien	1%	3%	180s
13	NELIN Jesper	1%	3%	181s
41	BOCHARNIKOV Sergey	<1%	2%	183s
23	LATYPOV Eduard	<1%	2%	189s
25	RASTORGUJEVS Andrejs	<1%	2%	199s
26	HORN Philipp	<1%	1%	217s
14	EBERHARD Julian	<1%	1%	224s