Oberhof BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 10.01.2021 mixed 4×6km relay race preview

First mixed relay of the season is about to start! Below is a prediction made by our model. Norway is a likely winner with 45% chance, France is second favourite with 19% and Germany predicted as third favourite (11% chance). The next three teams (Russia, Belarus and Austria) have similar chances to win the race – about 5-6% each. Sweden is weakened by a late change to their line-up with Peppe Femling replacing Martin Ponsiluoma. Obviously they still can win the race but our model gives them only about 3% chance.

Bib	Country	Winning chance	Chance for a medal	Projected seconds behind
1	NORWAY	45%	78%	0s
3	FRANCE	19%	54%	32s
4	GERMANY	11%	39%	76s
5	RUSSIA	6%	27%	87s
12	BELARUS	5%	24%	100s
8	AUSTRIA	6%	28%	109s
6	SWEDEN	3%	17%	116s
18	UKRAINE	2%	14%	142s
9	SWITZERLAND	1%	7%	153s
2	ITALY	1%	5%	170s
7	CZECH REPUBLIC	<1%	4%	190s
11	FINLAND	<1%	1%	244s
10	USA	<1%	1%	244s
21	BULGARIA	<1%	<1%	263s
16	SLOVAKIA	<1%	<1%	312s
14	POLAND	<1%	<1%	325s
13	CANADA	<1%	<1%	331s
19	LITHUANIA	0%	<1%	352s
20	JAPAN	<1%	<1%	355s
15	ESTONIA	0%	<1%	400s
23	LATVIA	0%	<1%	465s
17	SLOVENIA	0%	0%	507s
22	KAZAKHSTAN	0%	0%	537s
24	ROMANIA	0%	0%	575s