March 1, 2021

Kontiolahti BMW IBU Biathlon World Cup 28.11.2020 women 15km individual race preview

Finally we have arrived at the start of another season. After much anxiety if there would be a season at all, or if the worldwide pandemic would stop it in its tracks, we are back where it all ended some eight months ago in Kontiolahti, Finland, and the biathletes are raring to go.

We have put the period after the end of the 2019-20 season to good use and built a biathlon model, which we hope to employ to provide us with an overview of the various athlete’s chances of ending in the different positions, for every single race of the 2020-21 season.

Bib Name Country Chances of various positions Winning chance Chance for a medal Projected seconds behind
WIERER Dorothea
12% 27% 0s
ROEISELAND Marte Olsbu
10% 22% 19s
OEBERG Hanna
8% 21% 19s
PREUSS Franziska
6% 17% 29s
HERRMANN Denise
6% 14% 58s
VITTOZZI Lisa
5% 15% 40s
ECKHOFF Tiril
5% 13% 64s
TANDREVOLD Ingrid Landmark
4% 11% 63s
HOJNISZ Monika
3% 10% 63s
HAUSER Lisa Theresa
3% 11% 51s
SIMON Julia
3% 9% 87s
PERSSON Linn
3% 9% 66s
PAVLOVA Evgeniya
3% 10% 35s
BRAISAZ Justine
2% 7% 104s
HINZ Vanessa
2% 8% 74s
BESCOND Anais
2% 8% 86s
KRYUKO Iryna
2% 8% 72s
BRORSSON Mona
2% 7% 75s
DZHYMA Juliya
2% 6% 82s
KUKLINA Larisa
1% 6% 89s
PIDHRUSHNA Olena
1% 6% 86s
DAVIDOVA Marketa
1% 4% 127s
HOEGBERG Elisabeth
1% 4% 104s
HAECKI Lena
1% 3% 163s
OEBERG Elvira
1% 3% 132s
KAISHEVA Uliana
1% 3% 117s
COLOMBO Caroline
1% 2% 128s
GASPARIN Selina
1% 2% 169s
SEMERENKO Vita
<1% 2% 124s
SKOTTHEIM Johanna
<1% 2% 175s

This model we have also used to simulate the entire season and project who are the most likely contenders for the large crystal globe as well as the small ones, for both genders.

As usual the very first races of the season is packed with uncertainty as it is near impossible to know how the athletes have progressed in training since the end of the previous season. The input of our model is purely results from previous seasons. It does not have access to any of the results from the warm up races or training reports for any of the athletes. Partly because of this we expect the accuracy of the predictions to pick up when the first few races have been completed and the model has fresh data to work with.

Our simulations indicate that there are several candidates with a somewhat similar chance of winning. The usual cast of suspects consisting of the likes of last year’s overall winner Dorothea Wierer, Hanna Oeberg, Marthe Olsbu Roeiseland, Denise Herrmann and last year’s runner up Tiril Eckhoff.

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Sportindepth has an ambition to dive deeper into the world of sports and hopes to provide in-depth content for Soccer, Athletics and various Winter Sports.

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